XRP Price Forecast: $1.45 Support Vs. $1.90 Rebound As Bitcoin Drops 47% From Peak

XRP Price – XRP-USD Trapped Between $1.40 Support And High-Beta Upside

Macro Crypto Tape And Risk Backdrop Around XRP-USD

The broader crypto market is not in a normal pullback; it is in a deep stress phase, and XRP-USD is trading inside that context, not in isolation. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is around the 68,000–68,400 USD area, roughly 47–48% below the peak after one of the worst seven-day drops in its history, with a maximum weekly loss of about 22.2%, worse than almost every historical seven-day period. Ethereum (ETH-USD) is stuck just under 2,000 USD, boxed between roughly 1,800 USD and 2,100 USD, the lowest region since May of last year. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) is hovering around 0.10–0.102 USD, down about 62% from the 0.2655 USD zone a year ago. In that environment, XRP-USD trading near 1.45–1.49 USD after a roughly 5–6% weekly gain looks relatively resilient, but that “outperformance” is happening right above a critical support band around 1.40–1.45 USD. Macro risk remains binary. The market is waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court decision on the Trump-era tariff powers around 20 February, a known catalyst that has already produced violent moves: when a similar decision was delayed in early January, Bitcoin jumped more than 2,000 USD in under an hour and roughly 39 million USD in short positions were liquidated. At the same time, upcoming Fed minutes and inflation data sit in the background. The base case across your sources is still “soft macro, risk-off bias,” with crypto needing a decisive macro shift to pull capital back from AI-related equities and commodities. XRP-USD is therefore trading under two simultaneous constraints: internal technical and flow dynamics, and an external macro headline that can flip risk appetite in either direction within a single session.

Short-Term XRP-USD Chart – Pin Bar Reversal, Support Ladder And Immediate Downside Zones

On the daily chart, the most important short-term signal is the recent bearish pin bar that printed on Sunday above the 1.47–1.50 USD zone. The structure is straightforward: a long upper shadow, a small real body, and a close back near the session lows. That shows clear rejection of higher prices and confirms that offers are stacked above 1.50 USD. Since then, XRP-USD has been oscillating around 1.45–1.49 USD, testing that support from above. That pin bar still “points” to unfinished downside toward the 1.26–1.27 USD region, which is where the October flash-crash low sits in your data. The short-term support ladder is tight. The first line is the current 1.45–1.47 USD area. A clean daily close below 1.45 USD would show that buyers who stepped in after the January–February flush are no longer able to hold the line. Below that, several sources cluster around a 1.30–1.31 USD validation level: once XRP-USD breaks and holds under 1.30 USD, any bullish divergence or “compression” thesis is invalidated and the move is just a continuation of the larger correction. Under 1.30 USD, the October low at 1.26–1.27 USD becomes the natural magnet. A failure to stabilize there drags the tape toward the 1.11–1.13 USD band, which matches this year’s lows from early February and a separate on-chain based call that sees a potential 24% drop from around 1.45 USD into the 1.08–1.10 USD zone after active addresses dropped from roughly 55,080 to 40,778. In the extreme bearish case described in your material, the full measured move extends toward 0.50–0.53 USD, corresponding with the 100% Fibonacci extension and the November 2024 region. That is the “reset” level if the current cycle fully unwinds. In other words, as long as 1.45–1.47 USD holds on closing basis, the market is still trying to defend the mid-range. A decisive break of 1.40 USD, then 1.30 USD, turns 1.26 USD, 1.11 USD and even 0.53 USD from theoretical numbers into active downside targets.

Medium- To Long-Term Structure – XRP/BTC Ratio, Eight-Year Trendline And The $7–$34 Window

The medium- and long-term structure for XRP-USD looks completely different from the intraday noise. The XRP/BTC market-cap ratio sits around 0.274 and one analyst maps this to a scenario where XRP’s capitalization returns to a historic pattern relative to Bitcoin. Under that framework, if Bitcoin’s market value were around 7.3 trillion USD (roughly 370,000 USD per BTC), maintaining the current ratio would put XRP near 2 trillion USD in market cap, which implies a per-coin price in the mid-30 USD area, around 34 USD. The key point in that analysis is that such a ratio would not even mark a new all-time high relative to previous XRP/BTC peaks, meaning the structure still has room to expand in a future bull cycle if the relationship repeats. A second long-term lens focuses on the monthly chart since the historical peak around 3.66 USD. From that high, XRP has dropped about 63%, grinding lower month after month since October 2025. The current setup is described as a backtest of the November 2024 breakout along an eight-year resistance trendline. Under that reading, revisiting the old breakout line is not a breakdown but a “check” of support strength. The bullish script is a “touch-and-go” pattern: price tags the trendline, briefly tests it from above, then launches into the next leg higher. If that plays out, the projected recovery band is wide but aggressive, ranging from roughly 7.70 USD up to the low-30 USD zone. Fibonacci extension levels cited in your data sit at 9.13 USD for the 1.272 extension, 15.02 USD for the 1.414 extension, and 30.70 USD at 1.618. These are not near-term numbers, they are long-cycle markers. Taken together with the ratio framework, they sketch a long-dated corridor where XRP-USD in a successful next cycle could theoretically trade anywhere between 7–10 USD on the conservative side and 30+ USD on the very aggressive side, with the current 1.40–1.50 USD zone sitting closer to the lower bound of that spectrum than to the middle.

On-Chain And Flow Data – XRPL Activity Surge, ETF Inflows And Whale Behavior Around $1.45

On-chain and product flow signals are not aligning with a market that has “given up”. Activity on the XRP Ledger has spiked sharply this week, with active addresses jumping from roughly 17,000 on Sunday to around 32,700 by mid-week, almost a doubling. That kind of surge usually means one of two things: either genuine renewed interest and build-out on the network, or a short-term spike in speculative activity that can bring fresh volatility and potentially short-lived price swings. Parallel to that, U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs have logged five consecutive days of net inflows, including about 3.26 million USD added on Tuesday alone. Cumulative inflows now sit near 1.23 billion USD, with net assets under management around 1.01 billion USD. That profile is not consistent with an asset that institutions are abandoning. Instead, it shows steady, measured accumulation through formal products even as spot price drifts sideways to lower. At the same time, whales are not uniformly on the bid. Several pieces you provided show large-holder selling pressure building around 1.45–1.50 USD, exactly where price is sitting now. That is consistent with the short-term bearish pin bar and the intraday rejections above 1.50 USD. So the flow picture is mixed but clear in its structure: spot tape is heavy at resistance, on-chain usage is rising strongly, ETF flows are net positive, and large holders are actively trading the range rather than passively sitting. The key is whether that ETF and on-chain demand is strong enough to absorb and eventually exhaust whale selling at this level.

Legal And Regulatory Overhang – Ripple Case Legacy, Market Structure And Selective Enforcement Debate

The legal angle has shifted from direct court risk to secondary effects on market structure and perception, but it still matters for XRP-USD. One side of the debate argues that regulatory choices in the early years effectively picked winners and losers: some large projects were left alone despite clear token sales and aggressive promotion, which allowed them to build network effects and market share without legal drag. Others, like XRP, were put under the microscope via enforcement actions. Under that view, the lawsuit against Ripple indirectly suppressed XRP’s relative adoption and valuation versus peers that faced no comparable enforcement. The opposing legal view is more mechanical: regulators can only bring securities cases if there is a clear issuer to target, and in Bitcoin’s case there simply is not. From that perspective, enforcement decisions cannot be blamed for whether another company did or did not break securities laws, and the later court outcome in the XRP case shows that many buyers were not legally “relying” on Ripple’s efforts when they purchased the token. The tension between those two interpretations shapes how investors read every new regulatory headline. Even though the core case is largely behind XRP, the legacy still weighs on allocation decisions: a part of the market views XRP as “battle-tested” with legal clarity on at least some transactions, another part sees it as a token that has already spent years under a cloud, while yet another group questions whether the regulatory playing field has ever really been level. For price, the important point is not who is right in theory but how that split translates into positioning. The data you supplied show XRP often moving broadly with Bitcoin and Ethereum, confirming its integration into the macro-crypto beta trade, but with market-share and sentiment swings that are still influenced by the regulatory narrative.

Institutional And Strategic Positioning – SBI’s Ripple Stake, RLUSD And Strategic Signalling

On the strategic side, XRP-USD benefits from a set of institutional anchors that are not purely speculative. The Japanese financial conglomerate SBI Holdings publicly rejected rumors that it holds roughly 10 billion USD worth of XRP tokens on its balance sheet. Instead, its chief executive clarified that SBI owns around 9% of Ripple Labs itself. With Ripple’s private valuation now above 50 billion USD, that equity stake is worth in the region of 4 billion USD. On-chain tracing in your data shows at least 64.5 million XRP in wallets attributable to SBI, with the caveat that other holdings may not be linked yet. More interesting than the exact number is the qualitative stance: SBI is signaling conviction not via a trading position in XRP but via a strategic equity stake in the company building payment infrastructure and the RLUSD stablecoin. RLUSD has already reached roughly 1 billion USD in market capitalization within a few months of launch and stands to benefit from the evolving U.S. stablecoin legal framework, with the “Clarity Act” work cited in your material as a potential accelerator. The market conversation around SBI’s “hidden asset” suggests that investors are starting to look at Ripple’s product stack – cross-border settlement, enterprise adoption, and a regulated stablecoin – as an additional backing factor for the XRP ecosystem. For XRP-USD, this does not give a guaranteed floor, but it does mean the token is tied into a broader strategic network where large traditional institutions have real money at risk and reputational capital aligned with Ripple’s long-term success.

Sentiment And Narrative – Attention Spike, Advisor Demand And Divergence From Price

Sentiment indicators around XRP-USD are unusually polarized. One large asset manager’s advisor survey shows XRP is now the second most frequently mentioned crypto asset among clients, behind only Bitcoin. Advisors report that client questions around XRP have surged, even as the token has dropped almost 29% over the last month and is now fighting to stay above critical support near 1.45 USD. That is a classic divergence: price is weak, but interest and discussion are high. The same research flags 1.60 USD as a key resistance level that active traders are tracking, and it frames 1.45–1.40 USD as the make-or-break floor for the current structure. In that framework, as long as XRP-USD can hold above 1.45 USD and avoid a weekly close below 1.40 USD, a relief rally toward 1.90 USD remains on the table. Data on large-holder behavior back that view to a point: there is evidence of whale wallets adding during the recent dip, even as many short-term traders are still trying to sell strength. If the token can grind sideways above 1.45 USD, force late shorts to cover, and flip 1.60 USD from resistance into support, the path into the high-1 range is clean because there is relatively little recent volume congestion between 1.60 USD and 1.90 USD. The flip side is clear. A clean break under 1.30 USD would invalidate this bullish divergence narrative completely and put the focus back on the downside levels around 1.11 USD and below. For now, the market is caught between these two stories: growing attention and institutional product flows on one side, and a heavy chart with obvious supply above 1.50 USD on the other.

Relative Positioning Versus Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin In The Current Drawdown

Relative to the majors, XRP-USD sits in an awkward middle ground. Bitcoin has already suffered a near 50% peak-to-trough drawdown with an extreme seven-day drop statistic, yet remains the primary macro risk proxy and is still the first asset advisors mention to clients. Ethereum has given up the bulk of its run toward 5,000 USD and is now pinned under the round 2,000 USD level, needing to reclaim the 50-day EMA around 2,600 USD and the 2,750 USD resistance zone before any renewed uptrend can be taken seriously. Dogecoin is trading around 0.10 USD after a three-session losing streak, with local resistance just under 0.12 USD and downside open toward the recent 0.0885 USD lows if support fails. In that lineup, XRP’s roughly 1.45–1.50 USD price, mid-single-digit weekly gain, and heavy but not yet broken daily structure make it look more robust than many altcoins that have been wrecked, but more fragile than Bitcoin, which still dictates macro flows. Correlation remains high. If Bitcoin can push back above 69,000 USD and Ethereum reclaims 2,000 USD, a break of XRP-USD below 1.40 USD can likely be avoided in the near term. If Bitcoin tests the 60,000–62,000 USD support band cited in your data and fails to hold it, any fragile support around 1.40 USD in XRP will almost certainly be taken out.

Forward Triggers – Supreme Court Tariffs, Fed Narrative And What Actually Moves XRP-USD Next

Near term, the most concrete catalyst on your desk is the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling expected around 20 February. The last time the court delayed a similar decision, Bitcoin moved more than 2,000 USD in under an hour and short liquidations of about 39 million USD hit the tape. That is the scale of the volatility you need to price in. If the ruling is interpreted as reducing policy uncertainty and loosening the perceived macro handbrake, risk assets can catch a sharp bid and XRP-USD could ride that beta move back toward the 1.60 USD area quickly. If the outcome is seen as tightening conditions or increasing uncertainty around trade and growth, the risk-off impulse can deepen the current consolidation into a proper second leg lower. Fed minutes and inflation data in the same week matter, but the commentary you provided points out that macro data alone, at current levels, are not enough to rebuild speculative enthusiasm; they mostly reinforce a “wait and see” risk-off stance. From an XRP-specific angle, further data on ETF flows, sustained elevated XRPL active addresses, and additional clarity around RLUSD and institutional usage will matter more than another marginal macro print. A sharp reversal in ETF flows from consistent daily inflows into net outflows would be an early warning that the institutional bid is backing away.

XRP-USD – Range, Break Levels And A Probabilistic Buy–Hold–Sell View

Putting all of this together, XRP-USD is trading in a very clear structure. The short-term battlefield is the 1.40–1.50 USD range. Above it, the first meaningful upside checkpoints are 1.60 USD, then the 50-day EMA around 1.81 USD, and then the 1.90 USD area flagged as a realistic relief-rally target if support holds and flows stay constructive. Below it, the path runs through 1.30–1.31 USD, then 1.26–1.27 USD, then 1.11–1.13 USD, and in a full unwind down toward 0.50–0.53 USD. Long-cycle frameworks, including the XRP/BTC ratio and multi-year trendline and Fibonacci work, keep the 7–10 USD and even 15–30 USD zones on the map for a future cycle, but they do not protect you from a deep retrace inside this current one. From a neutral, data-driven perspective, the profile at around 1.45–1.50 USD looks like a high-volatility speculative hold with a bullish long-term bias and meaningful short-term downside risk. The medium-term reward-to-risk is attractive only if the 1.40 USD level holds on weekly closes and if Bitcoin does not lose its own core support at 60,000–62,000 USD. If XRP-USD closes decisively below 1.30 USD, the probability of a move into the 1.10 USD zone or lower increases materially, and any “buy the dip” thesis for this leg is invalidated by your own numbers. This is not a low-risk setup. It is a classic high-beta, high-dispersion structure with a clean technical map, strong narrative support, real institutional flows, and very wide outcomes. What you do with it has to match your risk tolerance, time horizon, and the reality that a move to 7–10 USD over a cycle and a drop into the 0.50 USD region are both credible scenarios under different macro and crypto paths.

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