XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Crashes 10% to $1.30 After Iran Strikes Trigger $100 Million in Liquidations

XRP Price Forecast: Ripple Crashes 10% to $1.30 After Iran Strikes Trigger $100 Million in Liquidations — But Whales Are Quietly Accumulating, Spot ETF Inflows Have Reached $1.24 Billion, Exchange Volume Surged 212%, and the Cup-and-Handle Pattern Still Points to $1.67

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | TradingNews.com

XRP (XRP-USD) crashed 10% on Saturday, plunging from $1.42 to an intraday low near $1.30, after the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran. The selloff was immediate, violent, and indiscriminate — more than $100 million in long positions across the crypto market were liquidated within 15 minutes of the first headlines, and XRP absorbed a disproportionate share of the damage due to its elevated beta to broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin fell below $65,000. Ethereum cratered 5% to $1,867. Solana dropped to $80.34. Dogecoin lost 4%. Cardano shed 6%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has now declined 50% since October, and XRP sits at a critical technical inflection where the next $0.10 of movement — up or down — will determine whether the multi-month base formation holds or collapses entirely.

The brutal truth about Saturday's price action: the 10% drop in XRP was triggered by geopolitics but executed through technicals. The clean break below $1.36 — a level that had served as near-term structural support throughout the past two weeks — accelerated downside momentum as stop-loss orders cascaded and forced liquidations converted a controlled pullback into a capitulation event. Volume during the main selling wave surged more than 170% above the 30-day average, a clear signature of forced exits rather than deliberate distribution. A brief dead-cat bounce pushed price back to $1.325, but the rally was immediately rejected, forming a textbook lower high that confirms the near-term bearish structure. Former support at $1.36–$1.37 now acts as resistance. The $1.32–$1.33 zone caps any recovery attempt in the immediate term.

The Iran Shock — Why XRP Dropped 10% While the Geopolitical News Had Nothing to Do With Ripple

XRP does not process Iranian oil transactions. It has no exposure to Middle Eastern sovereign debt. It is not a defense contractor or an energy company. And yet it fell 10% in a matter of hours because of events in Tehran. The reason is structural: digital assets trade as risk-on instruments, and during acute geopolitical fear, they get sold first and fastest. Capital flees into the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold. It flees out of equities, commodities (initially), and most violently, out of crypto — which sits at the furthest end of the risk spectrum.

Israeli forces launched pre-emptive strikes against Iranian targets on Saturday morning. Iran retaliated with missiles hitting facilities in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, including U.S. military installations. President Trump declared "major combat operations" had begun. Explosions were reported near Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil export terminal. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 million barrels of oil per day, became a live military theater. Every asset class on the planet repriced in response, and XRP — with its relatively thin order books compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum — experienced amplified downside because the same dollar volume of selling produces a larger percentage move in a less liquid market.

The crypto-wide liquidation event was devastating: $100 million wiped out in 15 minutes, with Bitcoin setting the cascade by breaking below $65,000. Altcoins — already fragile after months of persistent selling — were hit hardest. XRP's correlation to broad risk sentiment transformed from a neutral factor into an acute vulnerability. When capital moves this fast toward safety, there is no distinction between fundamentally strong and fundamentally weak tokens. Everything sells together.

The Technical Breakdown — $1.36 Support Shattered on 170% Volume, and $1.30 Is Now the Last Line

Before Saturday's geopolitical catalyst, XRP (XRP-USD) was already vulnerable. The token had been trading below key short-term moving averages and lacked strong technical support above the $1.36 level. The failed relief rally earlier in the week — which briefly pushed price to $1.42 before stalling below the 200-week EMA at $1.41 — was the first warning. When the Iran headlines hit and Bitcoin broke its own support structure, the spillover into XRP was mechanical: stops triggered below $1.36, market-makers pulled bids, and the price fell through $1.33 to $1.30 on volume that dwarfed anything seen in the prior two weeks.

The 200-week Exponential Moving Average at $1.41 is the most consequential long-term level on the XRP chart. This indicator filters multi-year trend direction and attracts institutional orders on both sides. A weekly close above $1.41 historically signals trend repair and opens the path to prior resistance at $1.67. A weekly close below warns that bears control the higher timeframe and the corrective structure from the July 2025 peak remains dominant. Saturday's crash to $1.30 means XRP is now trading roughly $0.11 below this critical EMA — a meaningful deviation that will take more than a single session to recover.

Key XRP Price Levels — Where the Support and Resistance Zones Stack Up

Immediate support: $1.30, the Saturday intraday low where forced selling exhausted itself. If this level holds through Monday's reopen and early-week trading, it becomes the base for a potential stabilization pattern.

Secondary support: $1.20–$1.22, identified by derivatives positioning as the next zone where longer-term demand is expected to emerge. This area corresponds to the lower boundary of the cup-and-handle pattern that has been developing over the past several weeks. A drop below $1.20 would invalidate the bullish formation.

Deeper downside: $1.11, then $0.87 if the $1.20 floor gives way. The bearish long-term camp sees prices between $0.30 and $0.50 over a five-year horizon, though that view requires a fundamental breakdown in XRP's utility and institutional adoption story that has not materialized.

Resistance: $1.32–$1.33 (immediate cap on recovery bounces), $1.36–$1.37 (former support now resistance, confirmed by Friday's breakdown), $1.41 (200-week EMA and the single most important technical level), $1.47 (next meaningful structural hurdle if buyers reclaim control), and $1.67 (breakout confirmation pivot that would signal trend continuation).

On-Chain Signals — Buyer Aggression Rising, Ledger Activity Elevated, Whales Accumulating

The price action says sell. The on-chain data says something entirely different. This divergence — between what the tape shows and what the blockchain reveals — is the central tension in the XRP thesis right now.

Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Holds Above 1.0 — Aggressive Demand Persists Despite the Crash

The taker buy-sell ratio — which measures whether market participants are entering trades aggressively on the buy or sell side — has consistently held above the neutral 1.0 level, with readings in the 1.05 to 1.12 range throughout the past week. This means buy market orders are outpacing sell market orders, a signal of active demand rather than passive accumulation. The critical nuance: this shift occurred while price was still range-bound between $1.36 and $1.42, before Saturday's crash. Historically, XRP rallies have tended to begin after taker buy dominance builds quietly during periods of compressed volatility — not after the breakout has already occurred. If the ratio remains elevated above 1.0 through Monday's post-crash session, it would suggest that underlying demand survived the liquidation event, which is a precondition for recovery.

XRP Ledger Processing 2.1 to 2.8 Million Transactions Per Day — Network Usage Is Not Declining

Daily transaction counts on the XRP Ledger have fluctuated between 2.1 million and 2.8 million per day even as price volatility compressed prior to Saturday's crash. This divergence — stable or rising network activity during price consolidation — is typically associated with absorption phases, where demand builds beneath the surface without generating immediate price expansion. The persistence of ledger activity at these levels confirms that XRP's ecosystem usage remains active regardless of short-term price action, which separates it from tokens where declining usage confirms declining fundamental value.

Whale Wallets With 10 to 100 Million XRP Are Adding, Not Selling

Wallet distribution data shows that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP — the whale tier — have demonstrated net accumulation during recent pullbacks. Smaller retail-sized wallets remain largely neutral. This pattern is characteristic of early-stage base formation behavior: large holders accumulate when prices are depressed and volatility is compressed, positioning ahead of the next move rather than reacting to it. The absence of significant whale outflows at current levels also implies that selling pressure is structurally limited — the biggest holders are not contributing to the decline, and in fact appear to be absorbing supply that retail is dumping during panic episodes like Saturday's Iran-driven crash.

Spot XRP ETF Inflows at $1.24 Billion Cumulative — Institutional Capital Is Flowing In During the Decline

Spot XRP ETFs have recorded consistent positive inflows over the past week, with daily additions ranging from $1.2 million to $4.5 million. Cumulative net inflows now stand near $1.24 billion. Total net assets held across XRP ETFs remain stable in the $1.0 to $1.06 billion range despite the broader crypto market's five-month decline.

ETF inflows during a period of declining prices are one of the strongest signals of genuine institutional conviction. These are not momentum trades chasing a breakout — they are accumulation flows occurring during consolidation, which is the exact behavior that precedes structural price recovery. The $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows represents a level of institutional commitment that did not exist during prior XRP correction cycles, and it provides a demand floor that purely speculative tokens do not have.

The contrast with Ethereum ETF flows is stark: ETH spot ETFs have shed $3.3 billion since October and $1.13 billion in the last five weeks alone. XRP ETFs are seeing inflows while ETH ETFs hemorrhage capital. That divergence tells you where institutional money is being allocated within the crypto ecosystem — and it is moving toward XRP, not away from it.

The 212% Exchange Volume Surge — Bitrue Spot Buy Volume Exploded Before the Iran Crash

Bitrue reported a 212% jump in spot buy volume for XRP heading into the weekend, signaling extraordinary interest around the $1.36–$1.42 price range before the geopolitical shock hit. Rising spot volume — as opposed to derivatives volume — reflects genuine demand for physical tokens rather than leveraged speculation. The distinction matters: spot buying creates real demand pressure on the order book, while derivatives activity can amplify moves in both directions without changing the underlying supply-demand balance.

The 212% spike preceded the crash, which raises a critical question: was that volume accumulation that will support prices once the panic subsides, or was it the last wave of buying before a deeper correction? The answer likely depends on whether the Iran conflict escalates further. If geopolitical risk stabilizes — even partially — the pre-crash spot accumulation should act as a demand floor. If the conflict widens and crypto faces sustained risk-off pressure, even heavy spot buying will not prevent further declines in the near term.

The Cup-and-Handle Formation — Still Intact Above $1.20, With a $1.67 Breakout Target

The longer-term XRP chart displays a cup-and-handle pattern that has been building for several weeks. The rounded base of the cup reflects a prolonged consolidation phase where selling pressure gradually weakened — price stabilized, volatility contracted, and the on-chain accumulation signals described above emerged. The handle formation — the current shallow pullback from the rounded recovery high — represents controlled profit-taking rather than aggressive distribution.

The pattern remains valid as long as XRP holds above the lower boundary of the handle near $1.20. Saturday's crash to $1.30 tested but did not break this critical level. A decisive breakout above the handle resistance at $1.67, accompanied by volume expansion, would confirm the pattern and signal the beginning of a trend continuation move. The measured target from a cup-and-handle breakout above $1.67 would project toward $2.00+, which aligns with the level XRP reached during the late-2025 rally before the broader crypto correction began.

If $1.20 breaks on a daily or weekly closing basis, the pattern is invalidated and the longer-term targets become irrelevant until a new base forms. The probability of that outcome depends almost entirely on whether the Iran conflict produces a sustained risk-off episode lasting weeks rather than days.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows at $506 Million — Crypto-Wide Demand Was Constructive Before the Bombs

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded approximately $506 million in net inflows during the session preceding the Iran strikes — a number that reflects supportive risk appetite across the digital asset complex. When Bitcoin ETF flows are positive and XRP ETF flows are positive simultaneously, the correlation structure favors upside for both assets once the proximate catalyst for selling (in this case, geopolitical panic) subsides.

The crypto market's five-month decline has erased 50% of total market capitalization since October. That is an extraordinary drawdown by any historical standard, and the severity of it means that the next recovery — when it comes — will be powered by the same forced repositioning dynamics that drove the decline, but in reverse. Short covering, ETF rebalancing, and algorithmic trend-following will amplify the move higher just as they amplified the move lower. XRP's 212% spot volume surge and $1.24 billion in ETF inflows suggest it is better positioned for that rebound than most altcoins.

The Macro Backdrop — Fed on Hold, PPI Hot at 3.6%, Jobs Report March 6

The macroeconomic environment remains challenging for all risk assets, including XRP. U.S. core PPI came in at 3.6% year-over-year on Friday — nearly triple the 0.3% monthly estimate — which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates. Money markets price 56 basis points of easing by year-end, but the PPI data suggests the Fed stays on hold through at least June. Higher-for-longer rates reduce liquidity, compress risk appetite, and create a headwind for speculative assets including cryptocurrencies.

Friday's non-farm payrolls report on March 6 (consensus: 60,000 jobs, 4.3% unemployment) will be the next macro catalyst. A weaker-than-expected print would strengthen the case for rate cuts and could provide a floor for crypto prices. A stronger print delays easing and maintains the macro pressure that has kept XRP range-bound for months.

The Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs added another layer of policy uncertainty. The administration has bypassed the ruling with new measures, and tariff collections in January 2026 hit $30.5 billion versus $9.0 billion a year ago. Trade policy unpredictability is a persistent headwind for all markets, including crypto, because it injects uncertainty into growth forecasts and corporate earnings expectations that indirectly affect risk appetite.

The Verdict — XRP (XRP-USD): Hold Above $1.20, Buy Below $1.25, and Wait for $1.41 Reclaim to Add

XRP (XRP-USD) at $1.30 is a cautious buy on weakness below $1.25 with a medium-term target of $1.67 and a near-term recovery target of $1.41. The rating carries a critical stop: a weekly close below $1.20 invalidates the entire thesis and triggers a full exit.

The bearish case is obvious and does not need to be argued: price just fell 10% in a single session, the broader crypto market has lost 50% since October, Bitcoin is below $65,000, Iran and the U.S. are in active military conflict, the Fed cannot cut rates because PPI is at 3.6%, and the technical structure shows a sequence of lower highs with former support at $1.36 now acting as resistance. Momentum favors sellers. Any bounce is corrective until proven otherwise.

The bullish case is less obvious but more compelling on a risk-reward basis. Whale wallets holding 10–100 million XRP are accumulating, not distributing. The taker buy-sell ratio remains above 1.0, signaling persistent aggressive demand. The XRP Ledger processes 2.1 to 2.8 million transactions daily — network usage is not declining with price. Spot ETF inflows of $1.24 billion cumulative are positive and accelerating, unlike Ethereum ETFs which have lost $3.3 billion over the same period. Bitrue spot buy volume surged 212% before the crash. And the cup-and-handle pattern — the most bullish formation in classical charting — remains valid above $1.20 with a breakout target of $1.67.

The setup is asymmetric. The downside from $1.30 to the $1.20 invalidation level is $0.10, or 7.7%. The upside from $1.30 to the $1.67 breakout target is $0.37, or 28.5%. That is a 3.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio — exceptional for any asset class, and particularly rare in a market where most crypto trades offer 1:1 or worse because of elevated volatility and unclear technical structure.

The optimal approach: scale into a position between $1.25 and $1.30, hold with a stop below $1.20 on a weekly closing basis, and add to the position only if XRP reclaims the 200-week EMA at $1.41. A reclaim of $1.41 shifts the medium-term bias from bearish to neutral. A breakout above $1.67 on rising volume confirms the cup-and-handle and shifts the bias to bullish with a $2.00+ target.

The Iran conflict will dominate Monday's tape. If the strikes are contained and diplomatic channels reopen within the first week of March, XRP has the on-chain foundation and institutional flow support to recover to $1.40+ rapidly. If the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, no crypto asset is safe, and the $1.20 support will be tested. Size accordingly — small positions, tight invalidation, and patience. The on-chain data says the bottom is forming. The geopolitics says the bottom might not be here yet. Both can be true simultaneously, and the discipline is in respecting both signals.

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