XRP Price Forecast: Ripple XRP-USD Rises to $2.53 as XRP ETF Verdict Nears

XRP-USD Surges 3.7% to $2.53 as ETF Optimism, Whale Accumulation, and Ripple Swell Hype Ignite Market Reversal

XRP (XRP-USD) is staging a powerful comeback, rising 3.74% to $2.53, after falling earlier in the week toward $2.43. The rebound follows mounting speculation that the Canary Capital XRP spot ETF could be approved as early as November 13, an event that could fundamentally reshape institutional liquidity for Ripple’s ecosystem. The asset’s volume soared 158% in the past 24 hours as traders positioned ahead of the verdict. XRP’s total market capitalization stands at $137 billion, ranking 5th among all cryptocurrencies, with derivatives data showing a clear rotation into altcoins.

ETF Catalyst: Canary Capital’s Filing Sparks Institutional Frenzy

The major catalyst for this renewed momentum was Canary Capital’s amendment to its S-1 filing, removing the “delaying amendment” clause that had kept its proposed XRP spot ETF in regulatory limbo. This procedural shift allows automatic registration once Nasdaq approves the accompanying 8-A filing, effectively clearing the way for a mid-November ETF debut. Traders immediately interpreted the move as a de facto green light for launch. Historically, similar structural changes in filings preceded fast-tracked ETF approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market analysts view this as a pivotal regulatory step that could transform XRP from a retail-driven asset into one with broad institutional exposure. With exchange-traded products already managing over $366 million in XRP-linked assets since September and Rex Osprey’s leveraged XRP ETF surpassing $100 million, a spot ETF approval would dramatically expand participation from hedge funds, pension allocators, and registered advisors. This shift echoes the Bitcoin ETF rollout that unleashed $17 billion in cumulative inflows within 30 days of approval.

Whale Accumulation Confirms Smart-Money Positioning

On-chain data from Santiment and Coinglass reinforces the bullish undercurrent. Over the past two weeks, whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP increased their collective holdings from 6.9 billion to 8.24 billion tokens, signaling accumulation at current prices. Meanwhile, long-term holders — those who accumulated before November 2024 — have been gradually taking profits, selling roughly $260 million worth of XRP daily, up from $38 million in August. Despite this profit-taking, net flows turned positive with $3.96 million in fresh inflows on October 31, the first major accumulation day in over a week.

Historically, such spikes in whale positioning and inflows have preceded upward surges of 20–30%. The balance of these signals — long-term holders distributing while deep-pocketed players accumulate — suggests a transfer of supply from old hands to new institutional entrants preparing for ETF-driven liquidity.

Ripple Swell 2025: Strategic Positioning Meets Macro Visibility

Ripple’s Swell 2025 event, set for November 4–5 in New York, adds another narrative layer. The conference will convene over 600 executives from 40 countries, including policymakers like White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and leaders from BlackRock, Nasdaq, Citi, and BNY Mellon. The agenda emphasizes tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) through the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and its alignment with ISO 20022 messaging standards — a crucial bridge between blockchain and traditional finance.

Sessions such as “The Impact of Tokenized Financial Assets on Capital Markets” featuring BlackRock’s Maxwell Stein underline Ripple’s evolving role as an infrastructure player in regulated finance. Analysts expect the event to drive renewed confidence in XRP’s long-term utility narrative, particularly as global payment volumes through XRPL top $298 million daily, despite short-term declines from earlier highs near $1.5 billion.

Technical Setup: XRP Builds Base Between $2.26 and $2.72

From a technical perspective, XRP/USD is forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline between $2.63 and $2.70. A breakout and daily close above $2.72 would signal a confirmed reversal toward $3.20–$3.35, followed by an extended measured move targeting $3.60–$4.00. RSI currently sits near 46.3, rebounding from oversold levels earlier this week, while the MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time in 12 days.

Immediate support sits at $2.43, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, and deeper demand zones at $2.16 and $1.76. The 50-day EMA at $2.66 remains a ceiling for now but would flip bullish on a sustained move above the 20-day EMA ($2.54). Technicals suggest consolidation is nearing exhaustion, setting up for a potential volatility expansion once the ETF verdict is announced.

Market Psychology: From Capitulation to Accumulation

October’s drop from $3.30 to $2.40 flushed leveraged traders from the system, with over $200 million in long positions liquidated across major exchanges. This reset reduced open interest, removing speculative excess. The RSI’s recovery, along with positive funding rate stabilization, signals renewed appetite for directional positioning. Moreover, sentiment indexes across Coinglass and Santiment have flipped from “fear” to “neutral,” often a precursor to early-stage reversals.

Social data shows XRP trending across major platforms, with mentions up 240% week-over-week on X (formerly Twitter) and engagement peaking near Swell-related topics. Analysts note that while speculative chatter drives near-term volatility, institutional flows — especially through ETFs — are now the dominant price determinant.

On-Chain Activity and Network Efficiency Metrics

Despite short-term selling, Ripple’s network fundamentals remain intact. Active addresses have stabilized near 12,819, down from 25,000 earlier in October, reflecting cooling retail participation but rising large transaction dominance. XRPL payment volumes fell 70% month-over-month, yet average transaction value doubled from $8,000 to $16,200, showing fewer but larger institutional-size transfers. This pattern mirrors early 2021 pre-rally conditions when whales concentrated flows before a multi-month uptrend.

Moreover, integration initiatives — such as GTreasury’s partnership, Evernorth’s liquidity onboarding, and the launch of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin — indicate strengthening real-world asset infrastructure. These developments reinforce XRP’s position as the primary bridge asset for cross-border settlement, with institutional adoption potentially compounding through 2026.

Options Market and Derivative Rotation Signal Shift to XRP

Data from Deribit and Amberdata shows a notable shift in options pricing dynamics. XRP’s 25-delta risk reversal flipped positive across multiple expiry dates — October 31, November 28, and December 26 — indicating traders are now paying premiums for upside exposure. This contrasts with Bitcoin (BTC), where long-term risk reversals remain negative, and Ethereum (ETH), which remains neutral.

The result is clear: institutional options desks are pricing a bullish bias for XRP over the next 90 days. Open interest in XRP calls has climbed sharply, suggesting a sustained altcoin rotation. Derivatives data confirms the rebound from the October 10 liquidation event that erased $20 billion in leveraged crypto positions has reignited interest in XRP and Solana (SOL) as higher-beta plays.

Layer Brett Buzz: Peripheral Narrative Lifts XRP Visibility

While XRP regains attention, the Layer Brett (LBRETT) token has emerged as a complementary speculative narrative in 2025’s crypto rotation. Built on Ethereum Layer 2, it fuses meme culture with staking and cross-chain interoperability. Though unrelated fundamentally to Ripple, its $4.43 million private funding round and 600% staking yield pitch have drawn parallel investor chatter, indirectly supporting market-wide liquidity in XRP pairs. The hype cycle overlap illustrates the sector’s appetite for fast narratives that mirror XRP’s early community-driven momentum.

Investor Positioning and Insider Perspective

Insider wallets tied to Ripple Labs executives, including early holdings attributed to co-founder Chris Larsen, show limited movement in October after a summer of heavy selling. This pause suggests reduced supply pressure from internal sources. Over seven years, Larsen realized $764 million in XRP sales, and recent stabilization implies Ripple is aligning its treasury distribution strategy with ETF timing.

Institutional trackers from TradingNews.com’s insider dashboard show continued accumulation from addresses linked to structured crypto funds and Asian market-makers. These positions align closely with ETF speculation timelines, underscoring strategic entry ahead of the regulatory catalyst.

Outlook: ETF Decision to Define XRP’s Trajectory

As of October 31, 2025, XRP-USD trades at $2.53, consolidating after testing the $2.43–$2.47 zone. If momentum sustains and ETF approval is confirmed by mid-November, the token could surge to $3.20–$3.35, with extended potential toward $4.00–$4.20 by early Q1 2026. Failure to hold the $2.40 support, however, risks a retest of $2.16–$1.76, particularly if macro risk sentiment weakens or Bitcoin dominance spikes again.

Considering fundamentals, whale behavior, and regulatory catalysts, the outlook for XRP remains bullish in the medium term. With ETF-driven institutional flows and Swell 2025 visibility, the token could emerge as the leading altcoin narrative into year-end.

Verdict: BUY — XRP-USD poised for breakout toward $3.20–$4.00, supported by ETF optimism, whale accumulation, and rising institutional participation.

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