XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds $2.40 as Ripple Swell 2025 and Targets $3.60 or $1.25

Ripple (XRP-USD) Tests $2.40 Support as ETF Buzz and Whale Accumulation Collide With Market Fear

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) trades near $2.40, down almost 5% in 24 hours, marking its weakest level since early July as liquidity tightens and leveraged long positions unwind. After briefly touching $2.60, XRP erased over $1.5 billion in market capitalization, pressured by Bitcoin’s slide below $68,000 and broad altcoin weakness. The daily range between $2.38 and $2.53 now defines short-term sentiment, while open interest in XRP futures has plunged from $9.09 billion in October to $4.33 billion, signaling a clear retreat of speculative demand. The OI-weighted funding rate collapsed from 0.0085% to 0.0010%, showing that long traders are capitulating and short positions dominate the order books.

ETF Momentum Builds as Ripple Swell 2025 and Canary Capital Filings Stoke Institutional Interest

The Ripple Swell Conference 2025, set for November 4–5 in New York, could act as a decisive macro event for XRP-USD. Scheduled speakers include U.S. White House policy advisers, executives from BNY Mellon, Nasdaq, Citi, and Fidelity, alongside Ripple leadership. The market expects critical updates on the RLUSD stablecoin, pending final approval from the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), and progress toward the first U.S.-listed XRP spot ETF. Canary Capital’s amended S-1 filing, now free of delaying clauses, opens the path for automatic effectiveness if Nasdaq’s 8-A registration is cleared. That milestone could mirror Bitcoin’s ETF debut, which drew $17 billion in inflows in 30 days. Currently, XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) already hold over $366 million in assets, underscoring demand for regulated exposure.

Whale Accumulation Reinforces Structural Demand Into Event Week

Blockchain analytics from Santiment and CoinGlass confirm renewed whale positioning. Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP increased their collective holdings from 6.9 billion to 8.24 billion tokens in the weeks preceding the Swell event. These inflows follow a sharp surge in profit-taking—daily realized profits rose from $38 million in August to $260 million by late October—suggesting that distribution has shifted from retail holders to institutional and high-net-worth addresses. On October 31, XRP recorded a $4 million net inflow to large wallets, signaling accumulation amid price weakness. Historically, such trends precede volatility reversals and are often seen before major Ripple announcements.

Technical Breakdown: $2.40 Support Under Siege, Next Floors at $2.18 and $2.00

XRP is entrenched below critical moving averages: the 50-day EMA ($2.64), 100-day EMA ($2.72), and 200-day EMA ($2.60)—a configuration confirming bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 41 signals fading momentum, approaching oversold territory. The MACD has nearly crossed its signal line downward, foreshadowing an imminent sell trigger. A daily close below $2.40 would expose the token to deeper correction toward $2.18, the level tested on October 17, followed by a more psychological support at $2.00–$1.90. Beyond that, key Fibonacci projections from July’s $3.66 peak indicate $1.61 as a mid-term floor and $1.25 as the ultimate bearish target—representing a potential 48% downside from current levels. The $2.59–$2.70 resistance band remains the ceiling to beat, housing both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.

Elliott Wave Signals Final Shakeout Before Potential Breakout

From a wave structure perspective, XRP appears to be completing the fifth and final leg of a corrective Elliott Wave pattern. After its summer high at $2.70, the asset retraced through three corrective waves, stabilizing around $2.30–$2.40 during wave (4). The projected wave (5) extension could briefly test $2.00 or even dip below it, flushing leveraged longs before a new uptrend resumes. If the correction finalizes near $2.00, a breakout above $2.80 would confirm bullish re-entry, targeting $3.60–$3.70 as part of the next impulsive structure. This aligns with the historical “Swell effect,” where XRP has typically rallied 25–35% in the two weeks following the conference.

Macroeconomic Drag: Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed Cap Crypto Sentiment

Global macro headwinds amplify XRP’s correction. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened for four consecutive sessions, now at its highest in three months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that a December rate cut is not guaranteed crushed market expectations—the probability dropped from 96% to below 70%, as measured by CME FedWatch Tool. The shift triggered risk-off behavior across asset classes. Bitcoin slipped 2.5%, Ethereum -4%, BNB -6%, and Solana -5.5%, dragging XRP further. A resilient dollar automatically pressures crypto assets denominated in USD, while declining liquidity in risk markets limits capital inflows into altcoins.

Regulatory Landscape and Ripple’s Expanding Network Partnerships

While traders focus on price, Ripple continues broadening institutional adoption. The company’s cross-border settlement volume rose sharply across Asia, with new corridors opened in Singapore, Japan, and the UAE, even as prices weakened. Its partnership network now spans over 55 global banks, reinforcing XRP’s long-term utility narrative. The integration of RLUSD stablecoin and the pending ETF approval could elevate XRP’s legitimacy in regulated finance. The dual-system theory circulating among analysts—including the potential coexistence of Ripple’s blockchain with SWIFT’s upgraded cross-border messaging system—envisions XRP as the neutral bridge for fragmented bank-issued stablecoins. Should this integration materialize, the structural value of XRP could appreciate well beyond speculative cycles.

Derivatives and Retail Sentiment: Open Interest Collapse Reveals Risk Aversion

The reduction in XRP’s open interest by over 50% since October illustrates a dramatic liquidity contraction. The derivative market’s funding rate collapse to 0.0010% reflects traders abandoning long exposure amid volatility. This reduced leverage has historically preceded accumulation phases—during similar conditions in May 2023 and January 2024, XRP recovered over 60% within two months. Retail participation remains weak, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down to 36, indicating high fear levels, while whale activity offsets retail selling.

Event-Driven Catalyst: Ripple Swell’s Historic Price Volatility Pattern

Historically, Ripple’s Swell Conferences have catalyzed notable price swings. In Swell 2023, XRP surged 31% to $0.64, and in Swell 2024, it jumped from $1.38 to $2.52 before correcting 35%. The consistent pre-event accumulation followed by post-event profit-taking defines a recurring cycle. With the 2025 conference coinciding with ETF approval speculation and growing whale inflows, volatility could exceed prior years. A confirmed ETF would inject institutional capital and mirror Bitcoin’s early 2024 rally, where ETF inflows fueled a 47% price rise within one month.

Price Scenarios: Recovery Above $2.80 or Breakdown Toward $1.25

Two scenarios dominate XRP’s near-term outlook. A bullish breakout above $2.80, driven by Swell or ETF momentum, would target $3.12, followed by an extended move to $3.60–$5.00 if institutional inflows accelerate. Conversely, failure to hold $2.40 risks cascading liquidation toward $2.00, $1.61, and eventually $1.25, the 100% Fibonacci extension. This marks the inflection between technical damage and recovery.

Insider Activity and Institutional Positioning

Institutional data suggests accumulation in advance of regulatory clarity. To track ongoing insider or institutional positioning in Ripple-related assets, see Ripple Insider Transactions. Current whale wallet activity reflects long-term conviction even as derivatives unwind. Major institutions and funds positioning around ETF approval are anticipated to trigger volume spikes across XRP pairs.

Verdict: HOLD – High-Volatility Range Between $2.00 and $3.60

Based on current macro conditions, technical setup, and event-driven catalysts, XRP-USD is rated HOLD. Price is compressed between $2.00–$2.80, with potential short-term downside toward $2.00, but the medium-term structure remains intact. A confirmed ETF launch or bullish Swell outcome could lift XRP toward $3.60, while a breakdown below $2.00 exposes it to $1.25. Volatility will dominate November trading, but long-term adoption drivers—cross-border utility, regulatory progress, and institutional inflows—anchor XRP as one of the most pivotal digital assets entering 2026.

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