XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds Near $2.30 as Ripple’s $500M Raise and Mastercard Deal Redefine Its Market Path

Ripple (XRP-USD) – From Institutional Breakthrough to Technical Strain: XRP Battles $2.30 Support Amid $40B Valuation, ETF Hopes, and Weak On-Chain Metrics

Ripple’s native token XRP (XRP-USD) trades near $2.30, extending a volatile week defined by historic funding news, surging wallet creation, and fading network momentum. After a sharp recovery from $2.09 to $2.36, XRP failed to hold its intraday highs, losing nearly 2.5% by late Thursday. Despite this softness, the token remains up roughly 4% over 24 hours, buoyed by Ripple’s $500 million capital raise at a $40 billion valuation and a new Mastercard partnership set to pilot RLUSD stablecoin settlements on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). The juxtaposition between institutional expansion and on-chain contraction defines the current phase of XRP’s market evolution.

Ripple’s $500 Million Raise and $40 Billion Valuation Redefine the Corporate Narrative

Ripple’s latest $500 million strategic round—its largest since 2021—anchors its transformation from a payments-focused fintech into a multi-segment blockchain conglomerate spanning custody, prime brokerage, and corporate treasury. The funding was led by Citadel Securities, Fortress Investment Group, Galaxy Digital, and Brevan Howard, signaling Wall Street’s return to digital-asset infrastructure after a prolonged risk-off cycle. This raise lifted Ripple’s private valuation to $40 billion, placing it alongside industry giants like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Circle.

President Monica Long emphasized that Ripple will remain private for now, citing “strong liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility” to pursue acquisitions and partnerships instead of a near-term IPO. Ripple’s payments volume exceeded $95 billion year-to-date, and its RLUSD stablecoin—backed 1:1 by U.S. Treasury assets—has surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization, reinforcing its integration in institutional workflows. The announcement coincided with Ripple’s plan to expand into sovereign payment rails and AI-enabled financial services, leveraging its liquidity management network to connect 40+ national banking partners by mid-2026.

Mastercard Partnership Ignites Institutional Interest in XRP Ledger

The announcement that Ripple and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) will jointly pilot RLUSD transactions on the XRP Ledger triggered a sharp, short-lived spike in XRP price to $2.36 before profit-taking hit. The pilot targets instant settlement for cross-border credit-card flows, cutting transaction times from multiple days to seconds. Ripple’s collaboration also involves Gemini and WebBank, expanding access to regulated stablecoin settlements within existing card networks.

This development marks a pivotal moment for XRP adoption: for the first time, a Tier-1 financial infrastructure player is directly testing the XRPL for regulated payment processing. Market analysts estimate that even a 5% conversion of Mastercard’s global clearing volume could eventually generate daily settlement flows above $50 billion through the ledger. Within 48 hours of the partnership reveal, 21,595 new wallets were created on the XRPL—an eight-month high—signaling retail re-engagement alongside institutional participation.

ETF Speculation Builds as Filings Near SEC Review Window

Amid corporate catalysts, anticipation is rising for the first spot XRP ETF filings. According to industry trackers, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and Bitwise have updated their S-1 filings, removing technical delay provisions and signaling readiness for November 13–14 review. Approval would mark XRP’s first inclusion in a regulated exchange-traded structure, expanding liquidity beyond crypto-native venues. Traders view this as the potential inflection that could lift XRP toward $3.00–$3.50, provided the SEC maintains its neutral post-litigation stance after Ripple’s $125 million settlement in August.

On-Chain Weakness: Fewer Active Addresses, Shrinking Network Growth

Despite bullish institutional headlines, blockchain data show notable fatigue. Active XRPL addresses fell 18.5% to 44,000, down from 54,000 in mid-October, mirroring the price retreat from $2.84 to $2.30. New address creation plunged 60% week-over-week to 4,770, highlighting weaker organic adoption outside speculative bursts linked to RLUSD activity.

Total futures open interest declined from $9.09 billion (Oct 7) to $3.54 billion (Nov 6), reflecting derisking by leveraged traders. CoinGlass reports $36 million in net spot outflows during the last 24 hours—unlike Bitcoin’s steady inflows—suggesting XRP’s mini-rally was leverage-driven rather than cash-funded. These on-chain trends hint that long-term conviction remains thin, with whales and retail traders alternating between short squeezes and profit exits.

Technical Framework: XRP’s Fragile Base Between $2.08 and $2.55

The technical landscape for XRP/USD remains complex. The token trades below both its 50-day EMA ($2.60) and 200-day EMA ($2.59), signaling deteriorating medium-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40, underscoring persistent bearish pressure. Analysts warn of an incoming Death Cross—where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average—which could deepen downside momentum toward the $2.00 psychological mark.

Key support sits at $2.20 and $2.08; failure to defend these zones exposes $1.95–$1.80 as potential targets. Resistance remains concentrated between $2.37–$2.55, with breakout potential only above $2.63, the upper limit of the short-term supply channel. A sustained close beyond that level could trigger a short squeeze toward $2.80–$3.00, aligning with the ETF speculation window.

Macro Drivers: QE Expectations and Global Liquidity Rotation

Another factor energizing XRP bulls is the renewed expectation of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve in early 2026. Prominent analysts, including Steph Crypto and Arthur Hayes, argue that renewed bond purchases could inflate risk-asset valuations, just as the 2020 QE wave lifted XRP from $0.10 to $1.70. Using similar liquidity modeling, a $10 price target has been floated as a “fair” upper-bound scenario under prolonged easing. However, this assumes parallel moves across major risk assets and a macro backdrop of disinflation, conditions not yet visible in U.S. CPI trends.

Network Fundamentals vs. Speculative Flows

Liquidity metrics reveal divergence between speculative leverage and organic usage. While daily decentralized exchange (DEX) transactions surpassed 954,000 on XRPL—indicating strong short-term speculation—average transaction value fell 22% month-over-month, confirming profit-taking rather than accumulation. RLUSD’s rise to a $1 billion market cap temporarily boosted utility flows, but absent broader merchant adoption, this effect may fade.

From a structural standpoint, Ripple’s deepening partnerships with institutional payment providers strengthen long-term fundamentals, yet short-term traders remain guided by technicals and volatility arbitrage. The overall picture mirrors early-stage re-accumulation rather than confirmed bullish reversal.

Investor Behavior and Market Positioning

Sentiment data indicate mixed conviction. While Binance data shows a net increase of 21,595 new wallets, large holders have offloaded roughly 30 million XRP into liquidity pools during the last 72 hours. Futures funding rates remain mildly negative at –0.013%, reflecting modest short bias among derivatives traders. Retail inflows surged in the wake of the Mastercard announcement but plateaued quickly, suggesting traders remain cautious after October’s liquidation event.

Forward Scenarios and Risk Range

If Ripple’s corporate and ETF catalysts sustain investor optimism, XRP could reclaim $2.63, unlocking a path toward $2.80–$3.00 in November. A successful ETF acknowledgment or early-stage approval could extend the rally toward $4.00, matching the high-volatility targets discussed in analyst forecasts. Conversely, a break below $2.08 would activate bearish continuation patterns toward $1.50–$1.25, especially if open interest continues to shrink.

TradingNews Decision: BUY THE DIPS / SHORT-TERM RANGE BIAS BULLISH

Ripple’s fundamentals are aligning with institutional validation unseen since 2021. The $500 million funding round, Mastercard pilot, and ETF speculation collectively signal confidence in the ecosystem’s durability. Yet the technical setup and weak on-chain activity warn that volatility remains high. For investors with medium-term horizons, accumulating near $2.20–$2.30 with targets at $3.00–$4.00 offers favorable asymmetry, while leveraged traders should hedge downside below $2.08.

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