XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Tests $2.60 Resistance - Is $3.00 the Next Stop?

XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Grinds at $2.55 as ETF Buzz, Supply Shifts, and Technical Barriers Collide

XRP’s price action has tightened into one of the most critical structures of the quarter. Trading at $2.55, up roughly 1.7% in 24 hours with more than $2.16 billion in daily volume, the asset is again locked beneath the $2.60–$2.72 resistance zone — a range that has capped upside since mid-October. The market’s focus now centers on whether the upcoming Canary Capital spot XRP ETF window (expected around November 13) can deliver enough conviction to propel the token toward the long-awaited $3.00 handle.

Price Structure and Market Behavior

The price has carved a descending-triangle on the daily chart, a structure often preceding continuation lower. Yet short-term relief buying emerged each time XRP tested $2.54 support. Technical compression is evident: price volatility has narrowed by nearly 40% since October, while the 14-day RSI sits near 48, a neutral posture hiding a mild bearish divergence—price has stabilized, but momentum hasn’t confirmed new highs.

Candle structure supports that tension: alternating Doji and spinning-top patterns indicate indecision, while the 50-day EMA at $2.63 continues to cap intraday rallies. The broader pattern morphs into a falling wedge on 12-hour frames—typically a reversal signal—suggesting that a daily close above $2.57–$2.69 could shift sentiment abruptly bullish.

On-Chain Flows and Accumulation Signals

Glassnode data adds weight to the bullish argument. Exchange net position change swung from –866 million XRP (Oct 30) to –965 million (Nov 1), reflecting an 11.4% rise in outflows—coins leaving exchanges for wallets. Historically, such outflows near resistance imply accumulation, not profit-taking. Around 1.56 billion XRP were previously acquired between $2.52–$2.54, forming what traders label the “glory zone.”

Should that band hold, the next significant cost basis cluster sits between $2.80–$2.82, where another 1.87 billion XRP were last bought. A breakout through the first cluster would therefore trigger algorithmic and discretionary buying aimed at that second zone.

ETF Catalyst and Institutional Liquidity Impact

The speculative fuse is the spot XRP ETF narrative. With Canary Capital having withdrawn its delaying amendment, the market reads near-certainty of a mid-November approval. That development, if realized, would mimic the Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024, which produced a sharp but short-lived “pop-and-fade” before flows matured. Applying that precedent, XRP could rally 20–30% into launch (targeting $3.00–$3.15), retrace briefly, and then stabilize as institutional inflows normalize.

Institutional settlement use remains XRP’s strongest fundamental anchor. Ripple’s banking network still clears transactions in 3–5 seconds at costs below $0.001, dwarfing SWIFT’s latency. As cross-border corridors in Asia and LATAM expand, demand tied to real payment flows—not speculation—adds structural support, a key reason XRP’s downside wicks have been aggressively bought around $2.50–$2.20.

Macro and Liquidity Context

Macro liquidity currently favors consolidation. The U.S. 10-year yield near 4.35% restrains risk appetite, and the DXY hovering at 105.6 limits sustained crypto rallies. However, easing inflation and the Fed’s recent 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00% inject a modest bid for high-beta assets. XRP’s relative strength—down only 0.4% week-over-week while BTC and ETH each slipped over 1%—underscores steady accumulation despite headwinds.

Technical Roadmap — Key Levels and Triggers

• Immediate resistance: $2.60–$2.72, a dual confluence of horizontal supply and 50-day EMA.
• Secondary resistance: $2.80–$2.82, heavy prior cost basis; breakout extends to $3.00–$3.15.
• Supports: $2.54 (trend floor) → $2.38 (0.618 Fib) → $2.26–$2.02 (lower wedge boundary).
• Momentum indicator: RSI 48; volume delta positive but flat; MACD histogram approaching zero line from below—neutral bias pending trigger.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

Futures open interest has stabilized around $1.8 billion, down 6% MoM, reflecting reduced leverage. Funding rates hover near flat, signaling balance between longs and shorts. Retail traders remain hesitant, but institutional wallets show net accumulation. This divergence—weak derivatives leverage versus stronger spot inflows—often precedes volatility expansion.

Comparative Performance and Correlations

Relative to BTC-USD, XRP trades near 2,270 sats, beneath the 100- and 200-day moving averages, implying underperformance but compressing volatility. A breakout above 2,500 sats would restore bullish relative momentum. Against ETH-USD, XRP has gained roughly 3.4% over two weeks, supported by rotation from ETH as investors price in ETF differentials.

Forward Scenarios

• Bull Case: Daily close above $2.69 breaks the descending wedge; momentum targets $2.81–$3.15, potentially $3.40 post-ETF if volumes exceed $4 billion/day.
• Base Case: Range-bound $2.38–$2.72 into ETF week; gradual grind higher as on-chain outflows persist.
• Bear Case: Break below $2.38 opens $2.26–$2.02; failure to attract ETF inflows could reset to $1.90–$2.00.

Verdict on XRP (XRP-USD)

Decision: BUY / Bullish bias — justified by sustained outflows, technical compression near resistance, and imminent ETF catalyst. The risk level remains $2.38, with a bullish trigger confirmed only above $2.69. Short-term traders target $3.00–$3.15, while long-term positioning eyes $3.50+ over the next six months if institutional flows materialize. XRP’s volatility is far from tamed, but structural demand around $2.50 and tightening supply indicate the token may finally be preparing for its next leg higher.

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