Ethereum (ETH-USD) Battles $3,630 Resistance as Supply Shock, Whale Buying, and ETF Demand Reshape Price Structure
Institutional Absorption Crushes New ETH Supply: A 32:1 Imbalance Ignites the Rally
Ethereum (ETH-USD) continues to trade near $3,630, up over 160% since April and more than 50% in the past month, amid an unprecedented supply squeeze led by institutional flows. Since mid-May, corporate treasuries and ETFs have acquired approximately 2.83 million ETH, while only 88,000 ETH have been minted during that same period. This 32-to-1 demand-to-supply ratio—confirmed by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan—has triggered a dramatic shift in Ethereum’s price mechanics and volatility structure. Hougan projects that demand could surge to 5.33 million ETH over the next 12 months, worth $20 billion at current prices, dwarfing the projected 800,000 ETH issuance.
What distinguishes this cycle from 2024’s Bitcoin accumulation phase is the velocity and breadth of institutional inflows into ETH—now exceeding Bitcoin’s ETF demand intensity in relative terms. While Ethereum represents 19% of Bitcoin’s market cap, ETH-backed ETFs hold only 12% of the assets compared to Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting major room for upside repricing.
ETF Momentum Builds: $296M Daily Inflows Mark Institutional Invasion
The spot ETF boom has injected daily volume spikes, with ETH-backed funds attracting $296.5 million in net inflows in a single day—marking 12 consecutive sessions of positive net flows. BlackRock’s ETHA alone absorbed $726 million, while Fidelity’s ETH ETF surpassed $1.7 billion AUM, cementing ETH as a mainstream treasury asset for institutions. The total ETF-driven inflow stands at $8.65 billion since launch.
This regulated exposure is reshaping treasury strategies. Public companies such as SharpLink Gaming, BitMine Immersion, and BioNexus Gene Lab have integrated ETH into their reserves. SharpLink alone now holds over 360,807 ETH, followed by BitMine with 300,657 ETH, and Coinbase at 137,300 ETH. These are not passive positions—they are strategic, long-term treasury shifts that further reduce float in circulation.
Whales Absorb Liquidity Ahead of Potential Breakout to $5,200
Major wallets have aggressively entered the market. One newly created address accumulated 33,644 ETH worth $125.73 million via FalconX in a 24-hour window. This whale now controls over 105,977 ETH valued at $397 million. A separate wallet acquired 32,640 ETH OTC, holding 43,787 ETH valued at $163 million.
In total, whales have swallowed over 150,000 ETH in the past four days. These are not random movements—they’re calculated allocations ahead of what technical analysts identify as a possible breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle. That pattern’s upper boundary lies between $3,850 and $4,100, and a weekly close above that threshold could open the door to $5,200, based on projected price extensions.
Technical Pressure Mounts at $3,670–$3,850; Compression Suggests Breakout Imminent
ETH currently consolidates within a descending channel, squeezed between $3,625–$3,650, with key resistance at $3,670, just above the 50 and 100-hour EMAs. A clean breakout above $3,850 would confirm a long-awaited triangle resolution. Indicators remain neutral but slightly bullish: RSI on the hourly chart sits near 50.77, and Parabolic SAR has flipped to bullish on the weekly time frame.
The 200 EMA near $3,542 serves as critical support. If ETH fails to reclaim $3,670 in the near term, it may revisit $3,520, and possibly test the broader support base between $3,480 and $3,500. Liquidation data confirms the stakes: over $198 million in leveraged ETH positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours, with $158 million coming from longs—underscoring the battle between bullish momentum and structural resistance.
Derivatives Data Shows Bullish Skew Despite Volatility Cleansing
ETH futures volume exploded 27.37% to $143.53 billion, reflecting heightened trading intensity. However, open interest declined by 3.9%, falling to $53.83 billion, indicating a risk-off tilt amid recent liquidations. This suggests traders are paring exposure while awaiting resolution of the current range.
Binance’s top traders show a long/short ratio of 3.32, reflecting continued bullish bias, but one that hinges on a clean technical breakout. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s spot trading volume overtook Bitcoin’s for the first time in over a year, with ETH spot volumes hitting $25.7 billion vs. BTC’s $24.4 billion—a sign of shifting market leadership in the altcoin cycle.
Staking Locks 28% of ETH Float, Shrinking Market Liquidity
Adding to Ethereum’s scarcity narrative is its staking mechanism, which now holds 28% of total ETH supply in validator contracts. This means more than a quarter of ETH is completely illiquid, and coupled with ETF and treasury accumulation, the market is left with dwindling float to absorb new demand. This mechanism magnifies price sensitivity to even modest increases in buying pressure.
Ethereum’s central role in DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenized real-world assets further solidifies its strategic importance. Over 50% of tokenized asset value and 54% of all stablecoin capitalization are hosted on the Ethereum network—underpinning its utility beyond just price speculation.
Crypto Payroll and DAO Treasury Migration Signals Ethereum’s Financial Role Expansion
A structural shift is also unfolding in how businesses interact with crypto. Startups and decentralized organizations (DAOs) are rapidly integrating Ethereum-based payroll systems, particularly in Asia. Platforms enabling direct ETH and stablecoin salary payments have gained traction, supported by Ethereum’s low-fee and scalable infrastructure.
This payroll transformation is more than anecdotal. It's institutional validation that Ethereum is becoming a financial backend for modern businesses, and its integration into smart contract-based operations underscores its long-term utility as programmable money.
Volatility and Liquidation Set the Stage for Fresh Accumulation
ETH’s rejection from $3,660 and repeated resistance at $3,850 has created a compression zone, with prices ping-ponging between $3,600–$3,700. This tight range has shaken out overleveraged longs and created cleaner conditions for accumulation. Major liquidation clusters exist near $3,768.90, with over $589 million in shorts stacked above that zone. If ETH breaches it with volume, a squeeze to $4,000–$4,200 becomes plausible.
However, if price slips below $3,520, it could unwind further toward $3,300—a critical support that has historically attracted institutional buying. Such a dip may prove to be another entry point in what appears to be a multi-quarter institutional repositioning cycle.
Buy, Sell, or Hold Verdict on Ethereum (ETH-USD)
Buy: Above $3,850 with confirmation of breakout from symmetrical triangle and sustained ETF inflows
Hold: Between $3,520 and $3,700 with compression bias and strong whale presence
Sell: Below $3,480 if support breaks and open interest continues falling
Ethereum’s current phase isn’t a retail-driven pump—it’s a slow institutional squeeze fueled by ETF flows, staking illiquidity, and smart money accumulation. The float is vanishing while demand surges. The next leg higher depends on a clean breakout past $3,850–$4,100. Until then, compression continues—but every dip is being bought. The chart may be range-bound, but the macro narrative is anything but.
