Robinhood Stock Price Forecast - HOOD plunges to $72 after crypto shock – is the selloff setting up a double-upside rebound?

Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) – hyper-growth platform repriced into a high-volatility opportunity

Current placement and why the recent selloff matters for Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD)

Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) trades around $72.68 with pre-market indications close to $77 after collapsing from a 52-week high of $153.86 and still sitting well above a 52-week low of $29.66. The current market value is about $65.35 billion on a price-to-earnings ratio near 30.2, with average daily volume in the mid-20 million share range and no dividend in place. Price has dropped roughly 35% year-to-date and around 30% in a handful of sessions, largely in response to a sharp reversal in Bitcoin and anxiety around near-term trading volumes and guidance.

That price damage is not coming from revenue collapse or an earnings miss. Q3 2025 revenue was about $1.27–$1.30 billion, roughly 100% higher than the previous year, with net income near $556 million and diluted EPS at $0.61, about $0.20 above consensus. Net margin pushed above 50% and return on equity climbed beyond 20%. The market is essentially repricing a business that is still growing triple-digits on the top line, with very high profitability, but with heavy sensitivity to crypto cycles and perceived valuation risk going into Q4 2025 results on February 10.

Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) growth engine – what the last year really shows

Recent quarters confirm that the platform is no longer a marginal, break-even trading app. In Q3 2025, total net revenue around $1.27–$1.30 billion was roughly double the prior year’s level. Transaction-based revenue reached about $730 million, increasing about 129% year-on-year, with crypto trading revenue multiplying several times compared to earlier periods and options revenue growing roughly 50%. That momentum has been sustained over time, with more than 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth and seven straight quarters of growth above roughly 35% year-over-year.

Profitability followed the same pattern. Net income jumped by more than 270% to roughly $556 million. Diluted EPS of $0.61 rose around 259% versus the prior year and beat analyst estimates by approximately $0.20. It was also the third consecutive quarter where net income and EPS showed triple-digit growth versus the prior year, unusual for a company already above $1 billion in quarterly revenue.

Underlying platform depth is also improving. Net deposits in Q3 2025 hit a record of $20.4 billion. Robinhood Gold subscribers reached about 3.9 million, confirming that users are willing to pay for premium services and keep sizeable balances on the platform. These metrics are central because they support recurring revenue streams and protect monetization even when headline trading volumes fluctuate.

Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) expectations for Q4 2025 and where the tape is nervous

Going into Q4 2025, Street projections still assume strong growth. Consensus revenue for the quarter is around $1.34–$1.35 billion, implying year-on-year growth around 30–32%. That is lower than Q3’s explosive 100% expansion but still squarely in high-growth territory. EPS expectations sit near $0.63, profitable but about 37–38% lower than the prior year’s quarter, reflecting higher operating expenses and stock-based compensation as management pushes product, marketing and compensation aggressively.

Across the last four quarters, Robinhood has delivered average revenue surprises of roughly 5% and EPS beats around or above 20%. On that pattern, a plausible outcome for Q4 is revenue nearer $1.40 billion with EPS in the mid-$0.70s, assuming volatility and engagement held up reasonably well.

The risk is not purely about beating consensus. The market is focused on the composition of revenue and the tone of guidance. A Q4 that beats on headline revenue but shows a steep drop in crypto activity, soft engagement or cautious commentary around 2026 growth can still push the stock lower when the multiple is rich and the beta is high. This is why the price is sliding ahead of the print: investors are de-risking before a catalyst that can swing earnings by tens of cents per share and potentially shift the longer-term growth narrative.

How diversified Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) is beyond the crypto trading cycle

A simple story says that weaker Bitcoin automatically means weaker Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD). That is only partially correct.

Crypto trading remains a major contributor and can move quarterly numbers sharply. Earlier in the build-out, crypto transaction revenue sat around $60 million in calmer periods and exploded more than fourfold in bullish phases, hitting roughly $268 million when Bitcoin crossed psychological levels such as $100,000. When sentiment reverses, that revenue line can contract fast.

However, several other revenue streams are now large and growing quickly. Gold subscriptions generated about $47 million in the latest quarter, rising around 70% year-over-year. Credit-card activity has been growing above 300% year-over-year, again starting from a small base but compounding quickly. “Other” revenue, including prediction markets and new products, moved from roughly $10 million per quarter in older periods to around $72 million, climbing near 200% year-over-year.

Back in 2019, options trading alone produced around $100 million per year. Today the company reports 11 distinct revenue streams ranging from options, equities and crypto to subscriptions, net interest and prediction markets. That broadened mix is deliberate: it aims to turn a volatile, trading-driven model into a diversified financial platform that can monetize a large user base through multiple recurring and transactional channels.

None of these streams removes crypto risk today. Crypto still affects the headline growth rate and quarterly volatility. But the trajectory is toward a structure where crypto is one important lever rather than the sole driver of incremental growth.

Operating leverage at Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) – expense growth versus revenue growth

For a high-growth fintech, the most important question after revenue is whether expenses are under control. In Robinhood’s case, top-line growth above 100% year-on-year and expenses up roughly 35% show real operating leverage.

Q3 2025 highlighted that clearly. While revenue roughly doubled, management guided full-year 2025 combined adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to about $2.28 billion, a step up from the prior $2.15–$2.25 billion range. The market focused on that guidance and sold the stock down more than 10% after earnings despite the strong results.

Viewed properly, the spread between revenue growth and expense growth is what matters. Net margin above 50% and return on equity above 20% indicate that the platform is already generating substantial profitability while still investing heavily in new products, markets and infrastructure. Expense discipline is not perfect and will continue to be tested, but the numbers show a business model with leverage, not one where costs are swallowing growth.

Valuation framework for Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) after the selloff

Earlier, the stock traded on a forward P/E above 40x, backed by trailing EPS growth above 300% year-on-year, compared with roughly 28% for Interactive Brokers and about 107% for Coinbase. That context made a premium multiple defensible but fragile. Any hint of slowing growth, heavier expenses or crypto fatigue risked multiple compression.

After the drop toward the low-70s, Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) changes hands around 30x earnings, with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio near 1.2–1.3 and a beta roughly between 2.4 and 3.1 depending on the time frame and source. The business is not cheap on absolute numbers, but it is no longer priced like a flawless secular compounder.

Sell-side views remain constructive. Aggregated ratings show a “Moderate Buy” or stronger stance, with two Strong Buys, fourteen Buys, seven Holds and one Sell, and an average price target near $136–$137, implying around 90% upside from $72–$77. Other analyst clusters, including TipRanks data, point to consensus targets around $154.93, implying more than 110% upside from current levels.

Longer-term models often assume funded accounts reaching roughly 37 million by 2030, ARPU increasing from about $190 to $250 and net margin around 45%. On that basis, 2030 earnings would place the stock on a forward P/E under 20x if the price stayed flat. If the market is prepared to pay around 30x for a diversified, high-margin platform at that point, the implied upside from today’s levels is around 60% by 2029, or roughly 12–13% annualized, before any premium re-rating beyond that.

Those scenarios depend on continued execution in subscriptions and new products, successful navigation of regulation and competition, and at least one more constructive cycle in equities and crypto. They do not assume a return to speculative peaks above $150.

Ownership, insider activity and what they signal for Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD)

Ownership structure is important in a stock this volatile. Institutional investors control about 93.27% of the float. Recent filings show Jones Financial Companies lifting its stake by 87.1% in Q3, adding 27,845 shares to reach 59,811 shares valued around $8.56 million at quarter end. Other institutions such as TFB Advisors, AXS Investments and Mediolanum International Funds have also added or initiated positions, indicating that large capital pools still see upside at higher prices than today.

At the same time, insider behavior has turned sharply net-selling. The chief technology officer disposed of about 5,864 shares at an average of $107.48, raising roughly $630,000 and leaving around 9,133 shares. CEO Vladimir Tenev sold 375,000 shares at an average of $121.63 for proceeds above $45.6 million. Total insider sales in the quarter reached roughly 1,537,615 shares, worth about $182.3 million, with insiders still holding approximately 14.47% of the company. The detailed patterns can be drilled down via the HOOD stock profile and insider transaction records.

Heavy selling by senior executives near the highs is a clear negative signal for short-term sentiment. It does not automatically mean a structural problem, but it confirms that leadership judged the risk-reward less attractive above $100 and was willing to crystallize gains at those levels. Combined with a price slide toward the eighth straight daily loss before earnings, this flow helps explain why the stock’s risk premium has widened so fast.

How the market is framing the Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) story into earnings

Recent coverage around Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) falls into distinct camps.

One perspective emphasizes the crypto shock. Bitcoin has fallen from near $100,000 toward the mid-$70,000s. Crypto volumes dropped, and HOOD fell about 30% in five days and 35% year-to-date. This view stresses that crypto trading is still a large share of transaction-based revenue and that a sustained downturn in crypto activity can pressure the top line and EPS materially, particularly if equity volatility also fades.

A second perspective zooms out to the full 2025 record: total revenue up about 100% year-over-year, net income up more than 270%, net margin above 50%, ROE above 20%, record net deposits, growing Gold subscribers and rapid expansion in subscriptions, cards and “other” revenue. That camp argues that near-term crypto volatility matters, but the underlying platform is now broad enough and profitable enough to absorb cycles without breaking the business model.

Valuation overlays both narratives. For many months, HOOD was described as “priced for perfection,” with limited room for error. The stock has now repriced sharply, but the same dynamic applies going into Q4: a clean beat and confident guidance can produce a violent rebound; any perceived softness in crypto volumes, engagement or 2026 commentary can trigger another leg down.

Risk structure for Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) at current levels

The main risks from here are concentrated in three areas.

The first is revenue concentration in trading and crypto. Even with diversification, a large portion of revenue still depends on frequent trading in options, equities and cryptocurrencies. A prolonged stretch of low volatility in both asset classes would compress spreads and volumes, hurting transaction-based revenue and slowing net deposits and ARPU.

The second is expense discipline and regulatory pressure. Management raised full-year 2025 operating expense and stock-based compensation guidance to about $2.28 billion as it spent more on bonuses, marketing and growth initiatives. The company is also pushing into more regulated lines such as prediction markets, expanding its geographic footprint and integrating acquisitions like Bitstamp, each of which introduces operational and compliance risk. If revenue growth slows toward 20–30% and costs grow closer to 30–35%, margin compression will undercut the premium multiple quickly.

The third is pure market volatility. With a beta in the 2.4–3.1 range and a history of double-digit percentage moves around earnings and crypto events, the stock is structurally unstable. Negative surprises on crypto activity, engagement metrics or forward guidance can wipe out 15–20% of market value in days. That volatility is the price of entry into this equity.

Positioning Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) now – rating and stance

At approximately $72–$77, Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) no longer trades as if nothing can go wrong. The stock has already absorbed a 30–35% decline on fears of a softer crypto cycle, insider selling and cautious earnings guidance. Yet the business is printing around 100% revenue growth, more than 270% net income growth, net margin above 50%, ROE above 20%, record net deposits and rapid expansion in subscriptions, cards and newer revenue streams.

Analyst targets centered around $136–$155 imply roughly 90–110% upside from current levels if the company continues to execute and gradually reduces its reliance on crypto. Longer-term frameworks that assume around 37 million funded accounts, ARPU of $250 and net margins near 45% by 2030 point to a forward P/E under 20x on those future earnings if the share price does not move, and a potential total return around 60% by 2029 if the market is willing to pay 30x earnings for a mature platform.

That upside is balanced by real risks: a possible long crypto downturn, the chance that trading volumes fade, execution and regulatory friction, and high volatility. But at today’s valuation, with the multiple already compressed from earlier peaks and the fundamentals still strong, the balance tilts toward opportunity.

On that basis, the stance is clear. With full awareness of the volatility and cycle risk, Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) is a Buy at current levels, suitable only for those who can tolerate sharp swings and are looking for leveraged exposure to a high-growth, highly profitable, but noisy fintech platform rather than a smooth defensive compounder.

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