Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Battles to Defend $128 as Bears Target the $100 Zone

Solana price forecast: SOL-USD tests $125–$130 as bulls defend, bears aim for $100–$117

Spot picture for SOL-USD: price, drawdown, and sentiment

Solana is trading in the $127–$129 band, having given back most of a brief rebound from recent lows. Over the last seven days, SOL has dropped about 10–12%, worse than a broader crypto market pullback of roughly 6%. Daily ranges have been tight but heavy: intraday highs near $130–$131 have repeatedly attracted selling, while dips toward $126–$127 are where buyers try to step in. Reported 24-hour trading volume has slipped into the $3.2–$4.0 billion zone, down roughly 30–36% from prior sessions, confirming that participation is thinning as price grinds lower.
Sentiment is clearly risk-off. A Fear & Greed Index reading in the low 30s (around 34) places the broader market in “fear,” not capitulation but far from greed. That backdrop explains the pattern: every bounce in SOL-USD is being used to de-risk rather than to build new long exposure.

Short-term structure for SOL-USD: failed bounce and weak follow-through

The recent bounce from the value area low looked constructive at first. A bullish engulfing candle signalled that buyers were willing to defend the lower end of the current range and push SOL away from the floor. But strong reversals do not stop at a single candle; they need follow-through, consecutive closes higher, and rising volume. That is exactly what is missing.
Since that reaction, price action has faded. The recovery was largely unwound by a string of weak closes, with candles showing upper wicks and small bodies that drift back toward support. That pattern marks the move as corrective, not the start of a new impulsive leg up. In a bearish environment, this is typical: price bounces at support, fails to attract real demand, and then rolls over again as sellers re-assert control.

Intraday triangle around $125–$130: compression before the next expansion

On the intraday (1-hour) view, SOL-USD is compressing inside a tight triangle between roughly $127 and $129–$130. That structure reflects shrinking volatility as buyers and sellers converge, usually a prelude to a sharp break in one direction.
An hourly close sustained above roughly $129–$130 would be the first meaningful sign that bulls can retake short-term control and drive a squeeze towards $135+. Conversely, a clean break and hold below $127–$126 would indicate renewed downside momentum, opening the door for a test of $120–$117 where deeper liquidity and untested demand sit.
At this stage, the tape is still favouring the downside: every probe higher is stalling quickly, while tests of support are getting more frequent. Compression without improving volume or momentum usually resolves with a continuation of the prevailing trend – in this case, lower.

Volume, liquidity and the $117 magnet: why lower levels remain in play

Volume behaviour is the loudest warning. Healthy reversals are backed by rising volume on green candles, signalling that buyers are stepping in aggressively and absorbing supply. In Solana’s case, the opposite is unfolding: trading activity has declined into the bounce.
A fading volume profile during attempted recoveries tells you demand is hesitant. Large players are comfortable letting price drift higher into shallow resistance so they can sell into strength rather than chase it higher. That pattern keeps the broader bearish structure intact and increases the probability of another leg down.
Below current levels, the obvious liquidity pocket sits around $117, which marks the range low / structural demand zone carved out during previous consolidations. Stops, resting bids, and pending orders tend to accumulate below recent lows; if SOL-USD loses its current support band, price is naturally pulled toward that cluster. That is why, as long as Solana fails to reclaim value with strong volume, $117 remains the next realistic downside target rather than an extreme scenario.

Daily chart signals: bearish bias, room to fall before oversold

Daily indicators confirm that sellers still dominate the short-term tape. The MACD line and signal line both sit below the zero line, pointing to a negative trend impulse where short-term price action is weaker than the longer-term moving averages. This configuration usually persists until momentum decisively turns and MACD crosses back above zero.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) hovers around –0.10, indicating that capital is flowing out of SOL rather than in. A negative CMF means that, on balance, money is leaving the asset – a bearish sign that aligns with the weaker volume we see on attempted rallies. Until CMF can claw back above zero and hold there, upside attempts are likely to be capped.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 41–42 on the daily timeframe shows weak to neutral momentum. Solana is leaning bearish but is not yet deeply oversold, which leaves room for further downside before pure exhaustion selling kicks in.
A Bull Bear Power (BBP) reading around –1.0 underscores that buyers are operating below equilibrium. As long as BBP remains negative, the path of least resistance remains down or sideways, not a sharp V-shaped recovery.

Medium-term trend: broken macro support, rejection at $147, corridor toward $100

Zooming out, Solana has broken below a long-standing logarithmic support trendline that had guided price higher for several years. The most recent rejection near the $145–$147 supply zone reinforced that this macro support has flipped to resistance.
Since early 2024, SOL-USD has effectively been oscillating inside a broad consolidation corridor between roughly $250 at the top and $103 at the bottom. The latest breakdown from the mid-range resistance around $145–$147 tilts the balance toward another rotation lower, targeting the lower boundary near $100–$103, which would represent roughly a 15–20% decline from current levels.
Because Solana tends to track Bitcoin on the macro timeframe, and BTC itself is now in a medium-term corrective phase, a mirror move in SOL is logical. As long as Bitcoin remains under pressure, rallies in SOL-USD are more likely to stall at resistance zones rather than break into sustained new highs.

Network fundamentals: spot ETFs, stablecoin growth, and tokenized TradFi flows

Price action looks heavy, but Solana’s network fundamentals remain strong and are increasingly aligned with the real-world asset (RWA) and institutional adoption narrative.
Several Solana spot ETFs have been approved in the United States, giving institutions direct, regulated access to SOL exposure. That pipeline matters in the medium term because ETF wrappers are a familiar structure for traditional asset managers; even modest allocation percentages into SOL from large portfolios can translate into significant incremental demand.
At the same time, Solana’s stablecoin market capitalization has pushed above $13 billion, helped by regulatory developments such as the so-called Genius Act, which has encouraged broader stablecoin issuance and usage on the network. Sticky stablecoin float is one of the clearest signals of sustained on-chain activity, since it underpins trading, DeFi, and payments.
On the policy front, the expected passage of the Clarity Act is viewed as a key potential catalyst. A more explicit regulatory framework that puts Solana products on firmer legal footing would reduce headline risk and could unlock additional institutional flows that today remain on the sidelines.

Tokenized stocks and RWAs: Solana as a capital-markets rail

Beyond pure crypto, Solana is rapidly positioning itself as an infrastructure layer for tokenized traditional finance. Over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs have recently launched on Solana through partnerships such as Ondo Global Markets, bringing Wall Street-grade exposures directly onto the chain.
Data from tokenization platforms shows that Solana already commands roughly 46% of the $1 billion tokenized stock market, largely via players like xStocks. That dominance has now been reinforced by a wider asset menu and deeper liquidity.
At the institutional layer, F/m Investments has asked the U.S. SEC for permission to tokenize shares of its flagship U.S. Treasury 3-month bill ETF (TBIL) and record ownership of roughly $6 billion in outstanding shares on a permissioned blockchain. While this proposal is not exclusive to Solana, it validates the broader thesis: regulated asset managers are actively exploring tokenization as the next step in market infrastructure.
Solana’s high throughput and low fees make it a natural contender to host these flows at scale. If even a small portion of traditional equity and bond trading volume migrates on-chain, SOL becomes not just a speculative token but the native asset of a functioning capital-markets rail, anchoring long-term demand even if short-term traders cycle in and out.

Longer-term projections: path from $128 to $100, then back toward highs

Medium-term forecasting points to a bearish-to-neutral tilt in the next leg, followed by a renewed bullish path if the macro environment stabilizes. Some external projections see SOL-USD trading around an average of roughly $580+ by 2029, with possible spikes toward the high-$600s, implying upward of 250–300% upside from current levels if the thesis of network dominance and RWA growth plays out.
Between now and that horizon, however, the tape will not move in a straight line. Technically, a retest of the $100–$117 zone would align with:
A full rotation to the lower boundary of the multi-month consolidation range.
A reset of daily momentum indicators into oversold territory where longer-term investors are more likely to step in with size.
A retest of structural support that can serve as a new higher-low base if the cycle remains intact.
From that kind of base, reclaiming $145–$150, then $210, and finally the old all-time-high region around $300 becomes realistic over a multi-year window, especially if ETF flows, stablecoin expansion, and tokenization volumes scale as expected. Beyond that, some aggressive scenario paths talk about potential moves toward $500–$700+ in an extended bull environment, but those numbers depend heavily on macro conditions, regulation, and sustained on-chain growth.

Risk map for SOL-USD: levels that decide the next 10–20% move

Near term, the downside pivot is clear. A decisive daily close below roughly $125–$126 would confirm that triangle support has failed and that the market is reallocating toward lower liquidity pockets. That would put $120 first, then $117, and potentially the psychological $100 handle into play.
On the upside, the first meaningful relief threshold sits around $129–$130 on the intraday structure. Above that, bulls need to reclaim and hold the $145–$147 band that recently rejected price. That zone is now a key supply shelf; failing there again would simply extend the sideways-to-down trend.
Only a sustained break and consolidation above roughly $210 would signal that the medium-term descending structure is being retired and that Solana is ready to attack the prior highs and potentially enter a new leg of price discovery. Until those conditions are met, every rally into resistance should be treated as a test of whether bears are still willing to lean on the tape.

Final verdict on Solana (SOL-USD): tactical downside risk, strategic long-term case – Hold with accumulation on deep dips

Putting all the data together, the message is straightforward. Short term, the chart is bearish: failed bounce, declining volume on green candles, negative CMF, sub-50 RSI, and a structure that points toward $120–$117 and potentially $100 if support gives way. Anyone trading SOL-USD on a short horizon needs to respect that downside risk of roughly 15–20% from current levels.
At the same time, network fundamentals and structural adoption trends are clearly bullish: U.S. spot ETFs, a $13B+ stablecoin base, growing RWA flows, and real traction as a tokenization and capital-markets platform. On a multi-year view, those drivers support the case for substantial upside from depressed zones, especially if price is allowed to reset near the bottom of the current range.
On balance, that combination justifies a clear “Hold” stance on SOL-USD. For existing holders with a multi-year horizon, the data does not support panic selling into fear; the more rational approach is to endure volatility and consider measured accumulation on deeper dips toward the $100–$117 support band, where the risk/reward profile improves significantly. Short-term traders should remain cautious and respect the bearish structure, but long-term investors are still looking at an asset whose fundamentals are improving while price corrects, not the other way around.