XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Stuck Around $1.90 With $2.00 Ceiling and $1.80 Breakdown Risk

XRP-USD PRICE AT A CROSSROAD: $2.00 WALL, $1.80 TRAPDOOR, AND A MARKET FROZEN BY FEAR

XRP-USD SHORT-TERM STRUCTURE AROUND $1.90–$2.00

XRP is trading roughly in the $1.90–$1.95 band after failing multiple times to sustain moves above $1.97–$2.00. Each push into that zone has attracted selling, turning the psychological $2.00 level into a hard ceiling rather than a springboard. Over recent sessions, price faded from the $1.97–$2.00 area back to around $1.90–$1.93, confirming that short-term traders are still using strength to reduce risk instead of chasing upside.
On the downside, the market is defending the $1.90 area as immediate support. Buyers stepped in several times between $1.90 and $1.93, stabilizing XRP-USD around that zone with intraday bounces, but those rebounds have been shallow. Below that, the next clear reference points are roughly $1.85 and then the key demand band around $1.78–$1.80, which has become the real line in the sand for this structure.

XRP-USD DESCENDING WEDGE, HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS RISK AND KEY LEVELS

Since the early-January peak near $2.35, XRP has been sliding in a controlled but persistent fashion, down about 19% from that high. The path lower has created two overlapping technical patterns.
First, the broader correction has compressed into a descending wedge: lower highs and lower lows, but with narrowing amplitude. The upper boundary of this wedge currently sits around $2.10, while the lower boundary is tracking up from just below $1.80. Statistically, this type of structure favors an upside resolution once sellers exhaust, with a measured move that can carry price back into the $2.20–$2.30 region if the upper boundary breaks decisively.
Second, on the 12-hour chart, price has carved what looks like a head-and-shoulders top, with the neckline concentrated near $1.80. If XRP-USD loses $1.80 on a daily close, the projected drop from that pattern points to roughly an 18% additional decline, targeting around $1.46, with intermediate risk pockets near $1.60 and potentially $1.40 if liquidations accelerate.
Short-term moving averages reinforce the idea that XRP is still in a corrective phase. On lower time frames, price trades below the 20 EMA around $2.00 and below the 50 EMA near $2.04, while on higher time frames the $2.18–$2.30 region (cluster of longer EMAs) becomes the medium-term resistance staircase if a rebound starts. Until $2.00–$2.04 is reclaimed and held, the market is structurally in “sell-the-rally” mode.
Momentum is starting to diverge from price. The daily RSI has begun to print higher lows while spot has tested slightly lower lows, a classic bullish divergence that signals fading downside pressure. MACD on the 4-hour remains below its signal line, confirming short-term bearish bias, but the histogram is flattening, consistent with decelerating – not accelerating – downside. The message is straightforward: the downtrend from $2.35 is intact, but it is tiring as the market oscillates between $1.80 and $2.00.

XRP LONG-TERM HOLDERS, LTH-NUPL 0.39 AND ACCUMULATION UNDER THE SURFACE

While the chart has been grinding lower, long-horizon capital has not abandoned XRP. The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) ratio sits around 0.39, a region historically associated with “optimism” phases that usually follow capitulation and precede extended accumulation. At that level, long-term investors remain comfortably in profit but far from exuberant.
Net position data shows that holders with coins older than 155 days have continued to add, not distribute, since roughly mid-January. Older coins are leaving exchanges toward private wallets rather than returning for sale. That behavior matches the idea that large, patient players view the $1.80–$2.00 range as acceptable risk-adjusted entry, even as headline sentiment sours.
This long-term accumulation acts as a structural backstop. It does not prevent volatility around news events or liquidations, but it reduces the probability of an uncontrolled spiral as soon as price dips. When aggressive selling from shorter-term accounts starts to fade, the presence of this deeper pocket demand is usually what turns a descending wedge into a genuine reversal.

XRP ETFs, INFLOWS ABOVE $1.20 BILLION AND INSTITUTIONAL APPETITE

Regulated products confirm the same picture. Spot XRP ETFs recorded around $1.07 million of net inflows on a single recent session, lifting cumulative net inflows to about $1.23 billion and pushing total net assets toward $1.39 billion. One lead vehicle, such as Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, has been central in that flow, but the tape is clear: institutional money is stepping in while price toggles between $1.85 and $2.00.
These are not leverage-chasing intraday trades; this is capital seeking medium-term exposure via ETF wrappers at spot levels near $1.90–$1.95. That is consistent with the on-chain signal from long-term holders and reinforces the idea that the structural bid under XRP is intact.
The ETF complex is not one directional, though. On January 20, XRP ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $53.3 million, a single-day flush large enough to keep the net ETF balance slightly negative for that window despite subsequent moderate inflows. That is exactly how a consolidation phase behaves: larger players trim into strength and step back in when price compresses, rather than capitulating. For XRP, it means that ETF flows are not a tailwind every session, but they are not a structural headwind either. On net, they lean supportive around current levels.

XRP SENTIMENT, EXTREME FEAR AND CONTRARIAN SIGNALS

Social metrics show the emotional side of the market is out of sync with the positioning of large holders. Sentiment indicators tracking XRP-related discussions across major platforms have dropped into “extreme fear” territory. Online conversation has swung sharply negative as price slipped from $2.35 to around $1.90, and that shift has pushed smaller speculators to the sidelines.
Historically, such deeply negative sentiment does not appear at the start of corrections; it tends to show up late, when short-term holders are already frustrated, underwater or exhausted. That is why extreme fear often lines up with local floors, not with early-stage tops. It does not provide perfect timing – fear can persist – but it tells you that marginal selling from the crowd is less likely to be rational, and more likely to be emotional.
Overlay that with exchange flow data and the divergence stands out. While discussion is dominated by pessimism, recent on-chain data recorded about $5.38 million in net inflows from exchanges into private wallets on one of the key days. That means coins are leaving trading venues while the narrative on social feeds screams risk. Long-term wallets are using fear to accumulate, while short-term traders abandon the market or sell rallies. This gap between sentiment and actual coin migration is typical near major inflection zones.

XRP DERIVATIVES: FUTURES DELEVERAGING, OPTIONS RELOADING AND LONG/SHORT SPLIT

The futures and options board shows a market that has flushed leverage but is still preparing for sharp moves. On the futures side, open interest has eased to about $3.31 billion, with trading volume sliding by roughly 40.31% to around $3.90 billion. When both open interest and volume drop together, it signals position reduction rather than aggressive new bets. Traders are derisking rather than doubling down, which reduces the probability of sudden, massive liquidation cascades but also limits the fuel for explosive squeezes.
Options tell a very different story. Option volume jumped roughly 134.60% to around $9.86 million, while options open interest climbed by about 10.72% to approximately $74.31 million. That mix shows that more sophisticated traders are positioning for volatility – in either direction – using options rather than leverage-heavy futures. Instead of blunt long or short futures exposure, capital is buying convexity: calls, puts, or spreads that pay off if XRP-USD moves sharply away from $1.90.
The long/short ratio is also split by size. Retail-dominated venues show a ratio around 0.94, indicating a mild tilt to the short side among smaller traders. At the same time, top traders on a major exchange sit on a long/short ratio near 3.04, meaning the largest accounts are materially net long despite the correction. That divergence tells you where conviction sits. Small traders are playing defense and fading strength; bigger accounts are positioning to capture upside once the range resolves.
Liquidations have remained modest, near $2.86 million over 24 hours, which confirms that forced position unwinds are not driving the price action. The sell-off from $2.35 to roughly $1.90 has been an orderly de-risking, not a panic.

XRP-USD AND RLUSD: STABLECOIN MECHANICS, NEW PAIRS AND LIQUIDITY EFFECTS

The launch of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on Binance is a concrete structural change in the XRP ecosystem. RLUSD is marketed as a 1:1 U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoin, fully backed by segregated reserves composed of cash, short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents. It is being issued on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, with issuance under a New York trust company charter, which tightens regulatory oversight and reserve requirements.
Binance has already introduced XRP/RLUSD, RLUSD/USDT and RLUSD/U spot pairs, with a zero-fee promotion on RLUSD/USDT and RLUSD/U. This instantly adds an additional fiat-like rail into the XRP ecosystem. For traders, that means tighter spreads and potentially deeper liquidity in Ripple-linked instruments as RLUSD adoption scales. For XRP itself, the key question is whether RLUSD grows as an additive flow channel – bringing new capital – or whether it merely redistributes existing order flow across pairs.
Structurally, the design positions XRP as the bridge asset, while RLUSD serves as the stable settlement token. RLUSD becomes the low-volatility leg for payments and on-chain transfers, while XRP remains the volatile risk asset that prices in growth and regulatory outcomes. In a risk-off tape, there is always a possibility that some holders rotate from XRP into RLUSD to park capital, but the presence of a trusted, Ripple-linked stablecoin also makes it easier for new institutions to participate in the ecosystem without directly holding XRP day-to-day. Over time, that tends to increase total liquidity, even if short-term it can shift flows between pairs.

XRP-USD, REGULATORY OVERHANG AND THE POST-SEC LANDSCAPE

From a regulatory perspective, the overhang is lighter than it has been in years. The SEC case against Ripple, which dominated the narrative for a long stretch, has been formally closed with a $125 million penalty. That figure is material but not existential for the company, and more important, it removes the immediate threat of a rolling, open-ended enforcement battle specifically targeting XRP’s status.
That does not mean the regulatory environment is friendly. U.S. market-structure debates remain unresolved; key industry figures are openly warning about the risk of “bad legislation,” and major players have walked away from draft bills they see as damaging. The point is that the idiosyncratic legal risk aimed at XRP has decreased; the remaining risk now sits at the systemic level, shared across large-cap crypto assets.
For XRP price dynamics, that shift matters. When regulatory threat is specific, market participants demand a heavier risk discount and are reluctant to hold size. When legal risk becomes macro and sector-wide instead of asset-specific, pricing starts to reflect fundamental usage, flows and macro conditions more than litigation headlines. That is exactly what you see now: XRP trading in line with broader crypto beta, responding to rate expectations and liquidity conditions, rather than gapping on court filings.

MACRO BACKDROP: FED, RATES, DOLLAR AND XRP SENSITIVITY

Macro still sets the outer frame for XRP-USD. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is running around 2.8% year-on-year, and futures markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the upcoming January 27–28 meeting. That means the policy rate remains restrictive, and real yields are still meaningful.
Crypto is trading increasingly like a high-beta rates play. When yields back up or the Fed sounds more hawkish, non-yielding assets such as XRP, BTC and ETH usually see sharp, synchronized drawdowns. That is why XRP’s slip below $2.00 has come alongside Bitcoin struggling to hold $89k–$90k and Ether failing to regain $3,000 with conviction.
Layer on top the geopolitical and policy noise: Trump’s shifting tone on Greenland-linked tariffs, the easing of immediate tariff threats toward European countries, and ongoing tension in U.S. crypto legislation. Each one nudges risk appetite up or down. Over the last stretch, global equities have enjoyed a bid after tariff fears cooled, but crypto has not followed through, staying mostly flat to soft. That divergence tells you that the marginal buyer in digital assets is still cautious; macro relief alone is not enough to trigger aggressive risk-on flows into XRP at $1.90 without a clearer rates path or a fresh crypto-specific catalyst.

XRP-USD SCENARIOS: BULLISH RANGE RESOLUTION VS. BEARISH BREAKDOWN

From here, the playbook splits into two clean scenarios anchored on the same key levels.
The bullish path starts with defense of $1.90 and – more importantly – protection of $1.80. If buyers keep price inside the current box and the descending wedge continues to tighten, the latent bullish divergence in RSI, ongoing long-term accumulation, and ETF inflows together raise the odds of an upside break. The first checkpoint is a decisive daily close back above $2.00, followed by $2.04 (50 EMA) and then $2.10 (wedge trendline). Clear those, and the measured move from the wedge points toward a test of $2.18–$2.30, where higher EMAs and prior supply converge. With options open interest climbing and large traders net long (long/short ~3.04 on top accounts), a break through $2.10 can trigger a sharp repricing as short-term shorts cover and sidelined capital chases momentum.
The bearish path is triggered by a failure at $1.90 followed by a decisive daily close below $1.80. That breakdown validates the head-and-shoulders structure and unlocks the projected move toward roughly $1.46, with $1.60 and $1.40 as interim risk zones. Under that scenario, ETF flows likely flip net negative again, sentiment – already at extreme fear – turns into capitulation, and futures markets could see open interest fall further as high-beta players are forced out. Even in that case, long-term on-chain holders are unlikely to reverse into full distribution; instead, the market would reset to deeper value levels where those same players reload heavier. But price would need to digest that 18% downside before the next base can form.
Right now, the data says the market is range-bound, with rallies sold near $1.97–$2.00 and dips bought around $1.90–$1.80, while derivatives positioning and options flows quietly gear up for a more violent move in one direction.

XRP-USD VERDICT: BULLISH BIAS WITH CONDITIONAL BUY, NOT A FREE PASS

Putting all of this together – price pinned near $1.90, a clear $2.00–$2.10 resistance band, critical $1.80 support, a descending wedge overlapping a potential head-and-shoulders, extreme fear at the sentiment level, long-term holders and ETFs accumulating, futures leverage de-risking, options loading volatility, RLUSD adding structural liquidity, and the SEC cloud largely cleared – the balance of probabilities leans constructively, but not blindly.
With XRP holding above $1.90 and the $1.80 neckline still intact, the structure favors an eventual upside resolution of the wedge more than a full breakdown, especially given the long-term holder behavior, net ETF inflows around the current zone, and the positioning of large derivatives accounts on the long side. The risk is clear: a clean daily close below $1.80 would flip that view and open room toward $1.60–$1.46.
Based strictly on the data in front of you – price levels, flows, sentiment, structure and macro context – XRP-USD at ~$1.90 is a BULLISH-TILTED “BUY” with tight invalidation below $1.80, not a neutral HOLD and not a momentum SELL.

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