Stock Market Today - Dow 49,100, S&P 500 6,915 and Nasdaq 23,480 Split as Intel Crashes and Gold Charges Toward $5,000

Stock Market Today: Dow Weak, Nasdaq Resilient As Gold And Oil Surge

Relief Rally Stalls As S&P 500 And Nasdaq Face Back-To-Back Losing Weeks

The U.S. equity market is pausing hard after a violent, tariff-driven week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is down around 0.5% near 49,100–49,150, dragged by Intel (INTC) and heavyweight financials like Goldman Sachs (GS) and American Express (AXP). The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is roughly flat to slightly negative around 6,910–6,915, on track for its first consecutive weekly decline since June, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is modestly positive, up about 0.1%–0.2% near 23,470–23,490, supported by AI and cloud leaders such as NVIDIA (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Small caps remain the weak spot: the Russell 2000 (RUT) trades near 2,702, down about 0.6%, confirming that pressure is heaviest in domestically exposed and lower-quality names even as mega-cap tech stabilizes.

Major Index Scorecard: Divergence Between Cyclicals, Tech And Small Caps

Across the U.S. benchmark complex, the picture is split. The Dow is firmly red on the week, the S&P 500 is marginally lower, and the Nasdaq is close to flat but still heading for a second straight weekly loss. Volatility remains controlled, with the VIX sitting around 15.9, up only slightly. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is pinned near 4.24%, barely changed, while the Dollar Index trades in the high-90s and is on pace for its worst week in about seven months, reinforcing the rotation out of U.S. assets into emerging markets and hard commodities.
For Trading News readers, the signal is straightforward: the broad U.S. bull trend is intact, but the easy index-level momentum is gone for now, and leadership has become extremely narrow around AI, defense, and selective financial names.

Greenland Shock, Tariff Whiplash And The TACO Pattern Drive Weekly Volatility

This week’s volatility started with the president’s threat to impose triple-digit tariffs on a group of European countries over resistance to a Greenland resource deal. That headline detonated risk sentiment early in the week, triggering the worst equity session since Oct. 10 as investors suddenly had to price a fresh front in the trade war alongside existing tensions with China and Iran.
Within 48 hours, the script flipped. At Davos, the president ruled out taking Greenland by force, walked back the tariff threat and announced a “framework of a future deal” brokered with NATO allies. That reversal re-activated the “TACO” trade – “Trump Always Chickens Out” – where sophisticated and retail traders increasingly treat tariff threats as buyable dips rather than structural regime shifts. Stocks ripped higher: the S&P 500 bounced around 1.2% in one session and added another 0.6% the next day, effectively erasing most of Tuesday’s drawdown before today’s renewed softness.
Retail flows confirm this behavior. Individual investors plowed roughly $4 billion into U.S. equities during the selloff and another $2.3 billion on the rebound day, demonstrating high conviction that tariff shocks will be neutralized quickly. That pattern keeps volatility episodic, but it also means any scenario where the White House doesn’t back down could cause a sharper air pocket than the market is currently pricing.

Global Flows: $17 Billion Exits U.S. Stocks As Emerging Markets Rally

Underneath the intraday swings, allocation trends are shifting away from U.S. risk. Fund data show around $17 billion of net outflows from U.S. equity funds this week, even as dip buyers traded aggressively around headlines. European equity funds just posted their strongest six-week inflow streak since June, while Japanese equity funds saw their largest weekly additions since October.
Emerging markets have become a primary beneficiary. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is heading for its fifth straight weekly gain, its longest winning streak since mid-2020. EM Latin America has pushed to levels last seen in 2018, while an EM EMEA basket has risen every day this week. Investors are effectively quiet-quitting U.S. bonds and some U.S. equities, reallocating toward EM assets that offer higher beta to AI capex, commodities and cleaner fiscal frameworks.

China Disconnect: ETF Outflows, Strong Renminbi And Policy-Driven Repricing

At the same time, flows into China are bifurcated. U.S.-listed China ETFs have seen another huge outflow wave – about $49 billion this week after $8.4 billion last week, even as the Shanghai Composite trades firmly higher and the renminbi strengthens, with the official fix pushed below 7.00 per dollar for the first time in roughly three years.
This reflects a structural repositioning: global funds remain wary of political, regulatory and audit risk in offshore China vehicles, while domestic and regional investors are selectively rotating into onshore tech and AI names. For global multi-asset allocators, China is shifting from a default overweight to a tactical trade, with more consistent capital flowing into broader EM ex-China.

Gold’s Vertical Move: Safe-Haven Bid Drives Bullion Toward $5,000

The standout move of the week is in precious metals. COMEX gold futures (GC=F) surged to an all-time high above $4,967 per ounce, and are trading around $4,940–$4,950, aggressively testing the $5,000 threshold. That puts gold up roughly 7–8% on the week and about 15% year-to-date, extending its best run since the late 1970s.
Catalysts are clear: the Greenland tariff shock, renewed attacks on Federal Reserve independence, military operations in Venezuela, escalating rhetoric toward Iran, and the broader sense that the U.S. policy mix is eroding confidence in fiat currencies and long-duration sovereign bonds. A major Wall Street house has publicly projected gold above $5,400 by the end of 2026, further legitimizing the “debasement trade” – rotating out of bonds and into hard assets.
From a trading perspective, this is now a late-cycle vertical leg. Positioning is crowded, price is significantly extended above medium-term moving averages, and the risk-reward for new longs is poor. For Trading News readers, this setup is closer to a Sell/trim or at least Hold-with-tight-risk stance rather than fresh accumulation, even if the strategic bull case for gold remains intact.

Silver And Platinum: White Metals Join The Mania

Silver has moved from strong to extreme. Silver futures have vaulted from roughly $30/oz at the start of 2025 to just under $100/oz, probing all-time highs just below the three-digit mark. Platinum has also broken to records alongside gold.
This white-metal surge reflects leverage to the same macro themes – dollar weakness, debasement fears, and geopolitical risk – but the volatility profile is far higher. Silver’s one-year move now looks like a textbook blow-off phase. The probability of a sharp 20–30% air pocket is rising, and risk control matters more than macro narratives. On a pure trading basis, silver sits in Sell / highly speculative-only territory; platinum is less stretched but still well into late-cycle dynamics.

Energy Complex: Oil Rebounds, Natural Gas Whipsaws Ahead Of Historic Freeze

Crude has quietly staged a solid rebound as attention shifts back to the Middle East and Iran. Brent crude trades in the mid-$60s per barrel, up close to 1% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is changing hands around $60–61 per barrel, up roughly 3% from prior sessions. The immediate driver is the president’s warning that a U.S. “armada” is heading toward Iran, coupled with the usual concern that any escalation could disrupt supply routes and exports.
Natural gas has been even more violent. Front-month U.S. natural gas futures (NG=F) just posted their largest three-day percentage gain on record – around 63% – jumping from roughly $3.10 to above $5.30 per MMBtu on forecasts for some of the coldest, snowiest winter weather in years and fears of freeze-offs in southern production regions. Today, gas is giving back some of those gains, slipping as much as 7–8% toward the mid-$4s, but remains on track for its biggest weekly gain since data began in 1990.
Oil here looks like a tactical Buy with geopolitical optionality in the low $60s for active traders; natural gas is an outright speculative instrument, not a position for conservative capital given this volatility profile.

Macro Backdrop: PMI Cooldown And The Fed’s ‘Data Fog’

Incoming data confirm a decelerating but still-expanding U.S. economy. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.9 for January, just below the 52.1 consensus and only slightly above December’s 51.8. The Services PMI held at 52.5, missing expectations of ~52.9–53.0. The Composite PMI ticked to 52.8 from 52.7, but also undershot forecasts. Readings above 50 still signal growth, but the pace is clearly off the hotter levels seen in the fall.
S&P’s chief economist estimates these readings imply roughly 1.5% annualized real GDP growth for December and January – positive but tepid. The Fed, meanwhile, is still operating in a “data fog” created by last year’s 43-day government shutdown, which distorted CPI and PCE releases and pushed the standard inflation data schedule out of sync until at least April. The end result is a central bank that is data-dependent with incomplete data, heading into a critical meeting next week where it is expected to pause further rate cuts while watching the labor market and inflation re-prints.
Globally, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady at 0.75% but hinted at future hikes, pushing the yen sharply higher and stirring chatter about potential FX intervention. That move matters for global risk because the yen has been a core funding currency for carry trades into U.S. equities, credit and EM assets; sudden yen strength can force leveraged de-risking.

Credit, Volatility And Market Health: No Stress Signal Yet From Bonds

Despite equity turbulence, core stress indicators remain calm. The U.S. 10-year yield is anchored near 4.24%, investment-grade spreads are contained, and high-yield proxies such as the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) are only marginally softer. The VIX near 15–16 confirms that this week’s moves are being treated as orderly volatility within an uptrend, not the start of a systemic event.
For Trading News, the message from credit is clear: the equity pullback is being driven by earnings-specific shocks and policy noise, not by funding stress or default fears. That supports a Hold bias on broad indexes rather than an outright bearish stance.

AI And Mega-Cap Tech: NVIDIA, AMD And Tesla Outshine The Tape

Even as the Dow slides, AI leaders are outperforming. NVIDIA (NVDA) trades around $187–188, up roughly 1.5–1.7%, after reports that Beijing has given in-principle approval for Chinese giants Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY) and ByteDance to prepare orders for NVIDIA’s H200 AI chips. Those orders remain subject to conditions – including commitments to buy domestic chips – but the signal is that China will still allow imports of last-generation U.S. AI hardware, preserving a meaningful revenue stream for NVIDIA’s data-center franchise.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than 3%, benefiting from the combination of Intel’s stumble, continued enthusiasm around AI accelerators, and ongoing rotation within the semiconductor space.
Tesla (TSLA) sits in the spotlight ahead of earnings after Elon Musk’s Davos appearance, where he reiterated plans to roll out Optimus humanoid robots as early as late next year and to scale Robotaxi services across the U.S. by year-end. Musk’s timelines are consistently aggressive, but the messaging reinforces Tesla’s push to reprice itself as an AI and robotics platform, not simply an auto manufacturer.
On the technical side, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) just printed a “bottom-worthy” high-volume spike on the tariff selloff, a pattern that has historically marked local lows in this ETF. That aligns with the idea that mega-cap growth and AI remain the most reliable buy-the-dip arenas in this market.

Intel Earnings Shock: Guidance Miss Triggers One Of The Worst Drops Since 2024

The biggest single-stock story of the day is Intel (INTC), which is collapsing after disappointing guidance. Shares trade around $45–46, down roughly 16%, putting the stock on course for its worst daily loss since Aug. 2, 2024, when it fell over 26%.
Q4 numbers looked superficially decent: Intel reported $0.15 in adjusted EPS, beating the $0.08 consensus, on $13.7 billion in revenue versus estimates around $13.4 billion. The problem is the outlook. For Q1, Intel guided:

Revenue: about $12.2 billion at the midpoint, below Wall Street’s $12.6 billion expectation.
Adjusted EPS: $0.00, missing consensus of around $0.08.

Management also conceded that Intel cannot meet all current demand for server CPUs, citing supply constraints in its own fabs at the same time it is spending heavily to ramp foundry capacity. Executives said major foundry customer announcements will not arrive until later in the year, delaying a key upside catalyst.
For Dow and sector dynamics, the message is blunt: Intel remains the laggard of the AI cycle. With the stock still not cheap on depressed earnings and the turnaround story pushed further out, the setup points to Sell / underweight rather than adding risk here, especially when NVIDIA and AMD continue to execute and capture AI wallet share.

Financials And Deal Activity: Capital One Buys Brex At Steep Discount

Within financials, the headline is Capital One Financial (COF) acquiring startup Brex in a $5.15 billion deal structured as 50% cash and 50% stock. COF is trading around $225, down about 4%, as investors digest the acquisition on top of fourth-quarter earnings that missed expectations, with adjusted EPS at $3.86 versus the $4.11 consensus.
The Brex purchase price represents roughly a 60% discount to the startup’s peak $12+ billion valuation in 2021, underscoring how harshly the market has repriced non-AI fintech “decacorns”. For Capital One, the logic is clear: plug an agile, software-first corporate card and spend-management platform into its massive balance sheet and distribution network. But the timing is complicated by a White House proposal to cap credit-card late fees at 10%, and by renewed political attacks on big banks – including pointed criticism toward JPMorgan (JPM).
Taken together, the sector is in a mixed zone: big banks face regulatory overhang and political noise, but valuation is not stretched and credit metrics remain strong. The stance here is selective Hold, with a bias toward well-capitalized franchises rather than broad financial ETF exposure.

Outperformers: Booz Allen, Sallie Mae, Ericsson And Coupang Show Stock-Picker’s Edge

Today’s tape also highlights a classic stock-picker’s environment. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is trading around $102.31, up about 6.8–7%, after the defense IT and consulting firm:

Reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.77, smashing estimates near $1.27.
Delivered revenue of $2.62 billion, slightly below the roughly $2.72 billion consensus.
Raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.95–$6.15 from $5.45–$5.65.

Management emphasized that the national security segment is growing well and, crucially, that the civilian business is “reigniting” after a choppy period linked to budget pressures and shutdown risks.
SLM Corp (SLM) – Sallie Mae – jumped about 8–9% pre-market after printing Q4 EPS of $1.12 versus expectations around $0.93 and announcing a $500 million 24-month buyback, with $33 million still available under its prior program.
In Europe, Ericsson rallied roughly 8.5% after beating profit forecasts, lifting its dividend and unveiling a $1.7 billion share repurchase.
In Asia, Coupang (CPNG) rose around 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy, arguing the market underestimates the structural strength of its logistics and marketplace model despite last year’s cyberattack.
The signal across these names: the market is aggressively rewarding clear EPS beats, upgraded guidance and capital-return stories, even in a choppy macro tape.

Transports And Airlines: Record High Dow Transports Versus Weather-Driven Cancellations

While the Dow itself struggles, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has hit multiple all-time highs this month, confirming the industrials’ bull under classic Dow Theory and signaling underlying economic resilience.
At the same time, the unfolding winter storm in the U.S. has triggered nearly 2,000 flight cancellations from Friday through Sunday. American Airlines (AAL) has cancelled 64 flights Friday and over 500 Saturday, while Southwest Airlines (LUV) has cut nearly 330 flights across the two days, with Dallas-area hubs DFW and Love Field hardest hit. Airline stocks are only modestly weaker, down around 0.5%, suggesting investors view the disruption as a temporary weather event, not a structural demand shock.
The combination of record-high transports and weather-driven noise fits a bullish medium-term / noisy short-term view on the travel and logistics complex.

Emerging Markets And AI Supply Chain: NVIDIA’s H200 Gets Beijing’s Conditional Green Light

Emerging markets are benefiting from both macro and AI-specific flows. On the AI front, reports that Chinese regulators have given in-principle approval for Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance to prepare orders for NVIDIA’s H200 GPUs – subject to buying a certain amount of domestic chips – suggest Beijing is willing to prioritize AI data-center build-out over maximal chip protectionism.
This matters for NVIDIA (NVDA), but also for TSMC (TSM) and regional semiconductor ecosystems feeding into hyperscaler data centers. U.S. sanctions still cap performance and volumes, yet the market is repricing the probability of a total collapse in NVIDIA’s China data-center revenue lower. That’s one reason NVDA is green today even with INTC imploding.
For EM equities, the story is broader: strong inflows into Asia, EMEA and LatAm funds, a softer dollar, and continued enthusiasm for AI-linked manufacturing and services are propelling an index that has historically lagged U.S. benchmarks. This backdrop supports a Bullish bias on EM equities, especially in markets aligned with AI, energy and metals.

Crypto: Bitcoin Stalls As Physical Gold Dominates The Safety Trade

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $88,500–$89,000, down roughly 0.5% on the day, and has notably underperformed gold during this latest stress episode. The “digital gold” narrative is not showing up in price action; capital seeking a safety valve has moved decisively into physical gold and silver, not into BTC.
The takeaway is that, in real geopolitical crises involving tariffs, territorial disputes and central-bank independence, institutional money still trusts bullion more than crypto. Bitcoin remains a risk asset with high beta to liquidity and tech sentiment, not a primary hedge.

Market Verdict: Equities Hold, Gold And Silver Overextended, Energy Tactical Buy

Pulling everything together for Trading News readers, the current setup leads to clear directional stances at the asset-class and key-stock level:

For the major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) the backdrop supports a Hold, moderately bullish bias. Earnings are mixed, but credit markets are calm, transports confirm the bull trend, and dip-buying remains aggressive. Volatility spikes are still being faded, not compounded.
For mega-cap AI and tech (NVDA, AMD, TSLA, QQQ) the stance is Bullish / Buy on dips. NVIDIA’s China news and AMD’s positioning confirm that the AI capex cycle is intact. Valuations are elevated, but price action and flows favor staying long leadership rather than rotating prematurely into laggards.
For Intel (INTC) the risk-reward is Bearish / Sell or underweight. Guidance is weak, supply is constrained, foundry credibility is still not proven, and the stock is absorbing a massive derating. Capital is better deployed in higher-quality semis while waiting for Intel to show real execution.
For gold (GC=F) the structural story is bullish, but the short-term setup is overextended. After a parabolic sprint toward $5,000, the probability of a sharp correction rises. From a trading perspective, this is Sell/trim or at best cautious Hold, not a fresh entry point.
For silver and platinum, the move is even more extreme. Silver’s jump from $30 to just under $100 in a year is classic blow-off behavior. The stance here is Sell / avoid unless you are a high-volatility trader, with risk sized accordingly.
For oil (WTI and Brent) the combination of low-$60s WTI, Iran risk and recovering demand supports a tactical Buy, especially for active traders who can manage headline risk around the Middle East.
For natural gas (NG=F) the recent 63% three-day surge followed by a near-8% pullback puts it in pure speculation territory. This is a high-risk trading instrument only, not a core position.
For emerging-market equities, strong inflows, a softer dollar and the AI/commodity theme justify a Bullish tilt, with an eye on country-specific political and FX risk.

Net result: the market is choppy but not broken. Indexes are digesting geopolitical shocks, gold is in a late-stage melt-up that demands discipline, and leadership remains concentrated in AI, select industrials and high-quality earnings beats. For Trading News coverage, the story today is not a top or a crash – it is a rotation and repricing environment where clear winners and losers are emerging, and where being precise about symbols, numbers and positioning matters more than ever.

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