XRP ETF Flows Push XRPI To $11 And XRPR To $15.8 While XRP-USD Clings To $1.90

XRP ETFs XRPI, XRPR And The Current Market Setup

Spot Prices, Trading Ranges And Liquidity For XRPI, XRPR And XRP-USD

XRPI is trading near $11.01, down 0.36% on the day with a move of -0.040, inside a daily range of $10.86–$11.30 and a 52-week range of $10.44–$23.53. Average volume around 550,000 shares shows solid liquidity, but pricing clearly sits near the bottom of the annual band, reflecting how far sentiment has cooled since XRP’s July 2025 spike.
XRPR is quoted around $15.77, with intraday trades between $15.47–$16.01 versus a year range of $14.79–$25.99 and a very thin average volume near 12,600 shares. That makes XRPR a narrower, less liquid wrapper on the same underlying, more sensitive to chunky orders and spread widening when volatility picks up.
The underlying XRP-USD is pinned around $1.90–$1.91, after failing to sustain moves above $2.00, and has been oscillating between roughly $1.85 and $2.26 since early December 2025. With ETFs like XRPI and XRPR anchored to this spot structure, current prices – $11.01 and $15.77 – effectively represent leveraged exposure to whether XRP can defend $1.90 support or slides toward $1.61.

Size Of The XRP ETF Complex: Assets, Flows And Market Share

Across all U.S. XRP ETFs, net assets stand near $1.37 billion, equal to roughly 1.17% of total XRP market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows are around $1.23 billion, built since the late-2025 launch phase, with daily trading value of roughly $18.05 million.
Within that pool, multiple vehicles are now established: one NASDAQ product around $20.50 with net assets close to $349.96 million and cumulative inflows of $397.88 million, a NYSE-listed fund near $21.58 with $299.34 million in assets and $315.74 million in inflow, a Grayscale-style vehicle at $37.38 with $215.84 million in assets and $231.79 million cumulative inflows, plus smaller CBOE and NYSE products. One CBOE fund around $18.75 is already slightly negative on cumulative flows (about -$7.77 million), while an NYSE fund around $20.92 (XRPZ-type) just printed a $2.09 million single-day net inflow and now carries $273.75 million in assets and $293.30 million cumulative inflows.
XRPI and XRPR sit on top of this structure as additional access points. Their pricing shows the same story: the structural ETF footprint is real – $1.37B locked – but the growth phase has slowed. Flows are no longer one-way into the complex; they are cycling between accumulation and profit-taking.

On-Chain Strength: 1.45 Million Daily XRP Transactions Versus A Stagnant Price

The XRP Ledger just delivered around 1.45 million transactions in a single day (January 13), the highest in roughly 180 days, and more than during the July 2025 move when XRP-USD hit about $3.65. Activity is being driven by cross-border payments, tokenized asset transfers and DeFi usage, backed by Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity corridors and new stablecoin integrations like RLUSD.
Despite that, price has been stuck around $2.10 and is now consolidating closer to $1.90. Historically, this coin tends to lag its fundamentals: in 2017 and 2020, on-chain metrics – transactions and wallet activity – moved first, while price broke out weeks later. The current divergence – 1.45M daily transactions, robust payments flow, and a spot price near $2.00 – signals that utility is outpacing valuation again. For XRPI and XRPR holders, this creates a structural bull case beneath a frustrating short-term tape.

Supply Side: Exchange Reserves At 2018 Lows And ETF Absorption

Centralized exchange reserves have fallen from roughly 3.76 billion XRP in October 2025 to about 1.6 billion by late December, the lowest level since around 2018. In parallel, XRP ETFs have absorbed roughly $1.37 billion in assets, locking up an estimated hundreds of millions of XRP in custodial structures.
This matters because it directly impacts the free float. Each share of XRPI, XRPR or other XRP ETFs represents XRP removed from exchange circulation and held by custodians for long-horizon institutions and advisors. When reserves sit near eight-year lows and ETF vaults keep growing, any future demand shock has less liquid supply to hit, amplifying price sensitivity.
At the moment, the market has not repriced this scarcity: XRPI at $11.01, XRPR at $15.77 and XRP near $1.90–$2.10 still trade as if supply is abundant. That disconnect is the core medium-term opportunity in the structure.

Institutional Flows: From Launch Euphoria To Record Single-Day Outflows

The flow pattern has clearly shifted. After months of net accumulation that drove cumulative inflows to around $1.23 billion, spot XRP ETFs recently saw a record single-day outflow of about $53 million, primarily from Grayscale redemptions, alongside a drift in XRP-USD back toward $1.91. That outflow sits on top of prior risk-off episodes and signals “fast money” trimming exposure after failing to break the $2.00–$2.26 ceiling.
At the same time, the latest full-day snapshot still shows $2.09 million of net positive inflows across the complex, entirely carried by the XRPZ-type ETF while peers printed zero flow. So structurally, institutional capital hasn’t abandoned XRP; it has become selective and more tactical.
For XRPI and XRPR, this means the ETF story is no longer a one-direction buy machine. The funds will see alternating phases: weeks where net inflows underpin the price and weeks like the $53M outflow day where those positions are partially unwound. Short-term price in both XRPI and XRPR will follow that flow rotation almost tick-for-tick.

Derivatives And Retail Positioning: Open Interest Collapse And Leverage Drain

Derivatives tell the same story of cooling risk appetite. Futures open interest in XRP has dropped from around $8.36 billion on October 10 to roughly $3.33–$3.38 billion now. The attempt to rebuild leverage toward $4.55 billion on January 6 failed and was followed by another wave of reduction.
More recent readings around $3.35–$3.38 billion mark a monthly low and confirm that retail and leveraged players have cut back significantly. Lower OI means fewer forced liquidations, smaller short squeezes and less “reflexivity” on both sides.
With leverage drained, XRPI and XRPR lose the explosive upside that comes when perp shorts are squeezed at the same time as ETF inflows surge. Their day-to-day path becomes more linear and more directly tied to spot flows and macro risk appetite rather than aggressive derivatives positioning.

Short-Term Technicals: XRP Trading Below All Key EMAs With $1.90 As The Immediate Line

From a technical standpoint, XRP-USD is trading under clear pressure. Price is sitting just above $1.90, with intraday prints around $1.906–$1.91, having failed to hold above the $2.00 psychological level. The MACD on the 4-hour chart is below the signal line, confirming downside momentum, and the RSI around 41 signals that sellers still dominate while conditions are not yet deeply oversold.
On the daily chart, XRP trades below the 50-day EMA near $2.05, the 100-day EMA around $2.17, and the 200-day EMA near $2.30. All three moving averages stacked above spot lock in a medium-term downtrend and mark a resistance zone that any recovery must chew through: first $2.05, then around $2.17, finally $2.30.
The first critical support is $1.90. A decisive break opens a path back to $1.85 (Monday’s low) and then the April low near $1.61. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $2.00, clear the EMA cluster, and then attack $2.26, which has repeatedly capped rallies since early December 2025. A weekly close above $2.26 with volume would be the first serious indication that the structure is turning.

Sentiment And Behaviour: Retail Caution Versus Long-Term Holder Optimism

Long-term on-chain metrics send a different signal than derivatives. LTH-NUPL (Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) has reset around 0.39, a region historically tied to accumulation phases and local price floors for XRP. That suggests long-horizon holders are not capitulating; they are sitting through the drawdown or adding quietly.
ETFs mirror that behaviour. Even with the record $53 million daily outflow and short bursts of selling, net assets still sit at $1.37B, and cumulative inflows remain positive at $1.23B. Franklin’s XRPZ-type ETF alone added about $2.09 million in a single day, and another dataset has XRP ETFs recording around $1.07 million of inflow in one session, with total assets climbing towards $1.39B.
Retail, in contrast, is cautious. Open interest slipping from $4.55 billion to around $3.35–$3.38 billion, plus two consecutive days of price declines despite ETF inflows, shows reduced speculative appetite. That creates a market dominated by slow money on the bid and fast money on the offer – a structure that compresses volatility until a new macro or regulatory catalyst forces a repricing.

Scenario Analysis: What Current Levels Mean For XRPI And XRPR Holders

If XRP-USD breaks below $1.90 and tests $1.85 or $1.61, the move would represent roughly -15% from $1.90 down to $1.61. In that scenario, XRPI at $11.01 would be expected to slide into roughly the $9.30–$9.40 zone, while XRPR at $15.77 could drift toward around $13.30–$13.40, allowing for tracking error and spreads. Thin XRPR volume makes overshoot to the downside very plausible.
On the bullish side, a reclaim of $2.26 followed by a push to $3.00 from $2.10 is roughly +42–45% upside. That type of move would likely take XRPI from $11.01 towards the $15.50–$16.00 band and XRPR from $15.77 toward about $22–$23. A retest of the July 2025 zone around $3.65 would extend those targets further, potentially dragging XRPI back into the upper half of its $10.44–$23.53 yearly range and XRPR towards the high end of its $14.79–$25.99 band.
The structural ingredients for the bullish scenario already exist – high on-chain activity, low exchange reserves, $1.37B locked in ETFs, and long-term holders in accumulation regimes – but they are being capped short term by ETF outflow spikes, lower derivatives leverage and weak broader crypto sentiment.

Buy, Sell Or Hold: Stance On XRPI, XRPR And XRP At Current Levels

On the data you have, the call is split by time horizon. Structurally, the combination of surging XRP Ledger usage (1.45M daily transactions), multi-year low exchange reserves (~1.6B XRP), and a still-sizable ETF base ($1.37B in net assets, $1.23B cumulative inflows) argues for a bullish long-term stance on XRP-USD and by extension on XRPI and XRPR. The market is clearly underpricing the supply squeeze risk if demand recovers.
Tactically, near term, the picture is bearish to neutral. Price sits under all key EMAs, $1.90 support is being tested, derivatives open interest has been crushed from $8.36B to around $3.3B, and you just saw a record $53M daily ETF outflow amid repeated failures to hold above $2.00–$2.26. That is not a backdrop where it makes sense to chase green candles.
Translated into a clear stance:
For XRPI and XRPR at $11.01 and $15.77, this is a Hold with a bias to accumulate on deeper weakness, not a sell-everything or FOMO-buy situation. The attractive zone is closer to the lower technical band – if XRP-USD flushes into the $1.61–$1.85 range while on-chain activity and ETF assets remain strong, that is where risk-reward on fresh capital becomes compelling. As long as price is pinned between $1.90 support and the $2.26 ceiling with mixed flows, the rational position for an institutional-style approach is to stay invested but treat this as a consolidation phase, waiting for either a clear breakdown below $1.90 or a clean reclaim and weekly close above $2.26 before sizing up.

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