Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Circles $85 While Short Sellers Double Down

Solana (SOL-USD) – High-beta chain trapped between forced shorts and exhausted dip-buyers

Solana (SOL-USD) price structure – 37% monthly drawdown and ~70% below the peak

Solana (SOL-USD) has been crushed by the current crypto risk-off phase. Over the last 30 days the token has lost about 37%, and it still trades roughly 70% below its all-time high, back near levels last seen more than two years ago. The brief relief bounce last week did not change the bigger picture: sellers have dominated for months, and the market is still unwinding the excess from the previous Solana mania. At the same time Bitcoin has slipped back below $69,000, with spot trading in the high-$68k region during the last sharp correction, so the pressure on SOL is not isolated. Solana is behaving exactly like a high-beta extension of the Bitcoin tape: when BTC breaks a psychological level like $69k after failing at the 2024 high, correlation, de-risking and liquidity withdrawal hit altcoins harder than the benchmark. For SOL-USD, the combination of a 37% monthly drop, a 70% peak-to-trough gap and a two-year price reset means sentiment is already deeply negative and a lot of fear is embedded in current prices.

Solana (SOL-USD) derivatives – 17 straight days of negative funding and heavy short conviction

On the derivatives side the picture is just as extreme. Funding rates on Solana (SOL-USD) perpetual futures have been negative for 17 consecutive days, the most persistent bearish stretch in more than 2.5 years. Negative funding means short sellers are paying longs to keep positions open. When that persists for more than two weeks you are not looking at random noise; you are looking at a market where traders are aggressively positioned for further downside and are willing to bleed funding to stay in the trade. That tells you the dominant conviction is simple: rallies are for selling and the path of least resistance is still lower. This structure matters because it defines the next move. As long as funding stays negative, there are only two serious outcomes. Either the trend continues and SOL-USD keeps grinding down while shorts harvest the move and pay funding as a cost of doing business. Or the market hits a point where selling pressure is exhausted, spot stabilizes and any positive catalyst forces shorts to cover into thin liquidity, producing a violent short squeeze. The longer the negative-funding streak runs while price hugs the mid-$80s, the more potential energy is stored for that squeeze.

Solana (SOL-USD) spot levels – $85.55 pivot, $80 breakdown risk and $95–$100 as first resistance wall

On spot, the immediate focus is the $85–$88 band. On-chain distribution metrics highlight around $85.55 as an important level: it was resistance on the way down and is now trying to act as support as SOL-USD trades in the mid- to high-$80s. Holding this region converts an old ceiling into a new floor and gives the market a short-term demand zone where dip-buyers can push back against the short book. At the same time 24-hour trading volume around $2.9 billion is down roughly 25% versus the prior day, which signals fatigue. Positioning is already heavy, and fresh spot capital is not rushing in aggressively at these prices. If SOL-USD loses the $85–$88 band decisively and slips under $80, the narrative shifts fast: you are back to more-than-two-year lows, sentiment deteriorates again and every institutional holder benchmarked to quarter-end marks will have to explain deeper unrealized losses. If, instead, Solana defends that band and pushes through the $95–$100 zone, the market sends a completely different signal. That area is the first serious resistance cluster above; reclaiming and holding it would tell you that shorts are being forced to cover, funding should move toward neutral and the tape starts to transition from “controlled bleed” to “repair mode”. Right now the market is sitting exactly between those two outcomes.

Solana (SOL-USD) and FARTCOIN – meme-coin flows as a real-time sentiment gauge on the chain

The state of Solana’s meme-coin complex, especially Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), is a direct read-through on risk appetite around SOL-USD. FARTCOIN is a Solana meme token born from an AI-generated “fart-themed coin” concept. It launched on Pump.fun on October 18, 2024 at about $0.000055, then exploded to an all-time high near $2.48 by January 19, 2025. That is a gain north of 4,000,000% in roughly three months. Since then the token has crashed about 92% from the peak and now trades around $0.18–$0.20, with a market cap near $190 million, around 1 billion total supply (almost fully circulating), 160,000+ holders and $30–40 million in daily trading volume. There is no roadmap, no protocol revenue, no governance and no team tokens; the distribution is extremely decentralized, with the top ten holders controlling only around 0.3% of supply, and the only “feature” that resembles utility is a novelty gas-fee sound mechanic. As a result, FARTCOIN functions purely as a sentiment and liquidity proxy. When Solana risk appetite peaks, FARTCOIN pushes toward billion-dollar plus valuations and even briefly overtook other Solana memes like BONK as the second-largest meme coin on the chain. When cycle momentum reverses, the same holder base sits on catastrophic drawdowns and either capitulates or rotates into the next narrative. For Solana (SOL-USD), this matters in two ways. First, the fact that FARTCOIN still trades with a nine-figure market cap and eight-figure daily volume shows that the speculative engine on Solana is damaged but not dead; capital has not completely abandoned the ecosystem. Second, the 92% collapse from $2.48 to sub-$0.20 is a clear reminder that meme-driven flows amplify volatility and do nothing to support the floor when macro and derivatives pressure hit the chain simultaneously.

Solana (SOL-USD) and Upexi – a Nasdaq-listed treasury bet showing both the upside and the mark-to-market pain

Institutional-style exposure to Solana (SOL-USD) is visible through Upexi, a Nasdaq-listed company that pivoted into a Solana-centric digital asset treasury model. In the quarter ended December 31, Upexi reported total revenue of roughly $8.1 million, about double the $4 million booked a year earlier. Of that, $5.1 million came from digital asset operations – heavily driven by SOL staking income – while the legacy consumer brands business contributed around $2.9 million. Gross profit climbed about 126% year-on-year to roughly $6.7 million, primarily because the high-margin Solana treasury business was added on top of the consumer segment. Under the hood, however, the company recorded a net loss of nearly $179 million, compared with a $1.3 million loss in the same quarter a year before. The swing was dominated by roughly $164.5 million in unrealized losses linked to quarter-end fair-value adjustments on its crypto holdings, plus around $8.3 million in stock-based compensation. Upexi held more than 2.17 million SOL at quarter end, with roughly 95% staked, and management has since indicated that holdings are now closer to 2.4 million SOL, even though SEC filings have not yet been formally updated. To shore up liquidity, the company raised about $36 million via a convertible note backed by locked SOL and another $7.4 million through a registered direct offering, bringing cash to roughly $9.7 million and keeping a previously announced $50 million share repurchase program technically in place. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL-USD) trades below $80 at points, near more-than-two-year lows, and Upexi stock has fallen toward $0.90 from highs above $22 that were reached after the pivot to a crypto treasury strategy. The message for Solana is clear. There is real listed-equity demand for the token at multi-million-unit scale, and staking can generate solid revenue. But the accounting mark-to-market volatility is brutal, and as long as Solana stays depressed, any similar treasury vehicle will show enormous paper losses. That raises the probability that at some point, if capital markets close or equity holders lose patience, treasury coins become forced sellers into a weak market, which would add another layer of downside pressure on SOL-USD.

Solana (SOL-USD) under the Bitcoin macro umbrella – BTC sub-$69k, derivatives liquidation and systemic de-risking

The macro overlay comes from Bitcoin (BTC-USD). On March 25, 2025, BTC slipped below the $69,000 level, trading around $68,966.53 on major USDT perpetual futures markets. That move broke a psychological support area after Bitcoin had already failed to sustainably retest its 2024 all-time high. Under the surface, order books and derivatives flows told the same story: on-chain data showed an uptick in large “whale” transactions, exchange net flows shifted toward higher BTC deposits consistent with profit-taking and repositioning, and funding on Bitcoin perpetuals had been modestly positive, pointing to crowded leveraged longs before the drop. Once $69k gave way, long liquidations spiked, and automated systems accelerated the downside. Historically, Bitcoin bull cycles regularly absorb 15–25% retracements after halving events or near prior highs, and the current move fits that pattern. But for Solana (SOL-USD) what matters is not whether this is a textbook mid-cycle correction or not; what matters is that every such BTC break triggers a de-risking cascade across altcoins. When the benchmark rolls over, high-beta names like Solana, Ethereum and the meme complex typically underperform on the downside, DeFi and NFT activity sees total value locked shrink, miner and validator economics weaken, and institutional products from spot ETFs downward see net inflows stall or reverse. In parallel, the macro backdrop is dominated by shifting rate expectations, inflation prints and moves in the US dollar index, while regulatory regimes like MiCA in Europe and ongoing SEC guidance in the US reshape the pipeline for new products and capital. All of that feeds into global risk appetite. In this context Solana (SOL-USD) is trading exactly as you would expect from a highly cyclical, leveraged beta play on the crypto complex: rough drawdowns when Bitcoin loses key levels, and no natural fundamental buyer stepping in at any specific price.

Solana (SOL-USD) scenarios – $75–$105 range, short squeeze potential and what would flip the bias

Putting the pieces together, the next phase for Solana (SOL-USD) is likely dominated by a wide but tradable range and asymmetric moves when positioning breaks. With a roughly 37% monthly decline, a peak-to-trough gap of around 70%, funding negative for 17 days straight and spot hovering around the $85–$88 pivot, the most realistic trading corridor for the next one to three months sits between about $75 and $105. As long as Bitcoin does not experience a structural collapse beyond the usual 15–25% correction profile, Solana’s downside path is a grind rather than a straight line to zero. Within that band, the structure is skewed toward at least one meaningful short squeeze. The derivatives book is loaded with shorts paying funding, meme-coin capital is bruised but not gone, Upexi-type treasuries are still accumulating and staking, and sentiment is already extremely negative. Any combination of a stabilization in BTC above the mid-$60k region, a technical reclaim of the $95–$100 area on SOL or a Solana-specific positive catalyst would be sufficient to force shorts to buy back into thin books and drive a vertical move in SOL-USD. Conversely, a clean weekly close below $80, accompanied by renewed Bitcoin weakness and visible forced selling from leveraged players or treasury holders, would invalidate the near-term recovery setup and open the door to a deeper leg lower into the high-$60s or low-$70s. In that environment every bounce into the $90s would look increasingly like a selling opportunity rather than a base-building phase.

Solana (SOL-USD) verdict – Speculative Buy for aggressive capital, not a defensive core holding

After absorbing all the data, the profile of Solana (SOL-USD) at current levels is sharp. The token has already suffered a 37% monthly slide and trades around 70% below its record high. Derivatives positioning is overwhelmingly short, with 17 consecutive days of negative funding, the longest bearish stretch in more than 2.5 years. Meme-coin activity on Solana, led by FARTCOIN’s journey from $0.000055 to $2.48 and back to around $0.19, shows that speculative energy is still present even after a 92% drawdown. A Nasdaq-listed treasury holder like Upexi sits on more than 2.17–2.4 million SOL, absorbing mark-to-market losses of around $164.5 million while continuing to earn staking income and raise capital. Bitcoin has already broken $69,000 and triggered the usual cross-market de-risking and liquidations, but the correction depth is still consistent with prior bull-market pullbacks rather than a confirmed secular top. Taken together, this supports a Speculative Buy stance on Solana (SOL-USD) at current levels for aggressive, high-risk portfolios that can tolerate deep volatility and the possibility of another leg lower before any recovery. The risk-reward is asymmetric because a large amount of bad news is already priced in, positioning is stretched on the short side and any shift in macro tone, derivatives structure or ecosystem narrative can squeeze price sharply higher from the mid-$80s area. It is not a defensive, low-risk core asset; it is a leveraged bet on a rebound in crypto risk appetite with clearly defined failure levels around $80 and an upside path that quickly targets the $95–$105 band and, if the cycle resumes, much higher over time.

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